January 15th, 2008, 08:02 PM
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#1
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I'm Coming for YOU!
Join Date: May 2002
Location: Las Vegas
Posts: 45,146
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Romney takes Michigan
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January 15th, 2008, 08:04 PM
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#2
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I'm Coming for YOU!
Join Date: May 2002
Location: Las Vegas
Posts: 45,146
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I see that Hlliary won in Michigan but it is saying there are no delgates awarded? Is that right?
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January 15th, 2008, 08:06 PM
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#3
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Goodbye, Sir. Thank You
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: MESA! :thud:
Posts: 24,385
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Shane H
I see that Hlliary won in Michigan but it is saying there are no delgates awarded? Is that right?
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Yes. Not sure how that works. She won because she was the only Dem on the ballot, btw. Obama & Edwards did not add their names as a protest to how Michigan changed their voting date or something like that.
__________________
 dreamcastrocks--My Hero!!
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January 15th, 2008, 08:08 PM
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#4
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I'm Coming for YOU!
Join Date: May 2002
Location: Las Vegas
Posts: 45,146
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Linderbee
Yes. Not sure how that works. She won because she was the only Dem on the ballot, btw. Obama & Edwards did not add their names as a protest to how Michigan changed their voting date or something like that.
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Thats interesting. |
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January 15th, 2008, 08:22 PM
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#5
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The Arizona Fitzharmonic.
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: CA
Posts: 20,149
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Yes, Michigan violated DNC rules by moving up as did Florida, therefore they will not have delegates...
__________________
"Going from the Raiders receivers to Larry Fitzgerald is like trading a Spam dinner for a well-aged T-bone steak." --Dan Hanzus
When I play rock, paper, scissors, I keep a glass of water in my hand and when my opponent throws down I throw the water in his face and say "Water". Beats all three, scissors can't cut-it, paper dissolves and the rock sinks. Plus it usually surprises the hell out of them.
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January 15th, 2008, 08:29 PM
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#6
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A Whole New World
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: On another planet
Posts: 40,799
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No surprise there with Mitt...his dad was governor of Michigan.
It would have been BIG news if he had lost.
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You see, Cards fans, when you love a team without likin' it, the games can be long and cold, and contempt comes up with the sun...
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January 15th, 2008, 09:43 PM
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#7
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Retirement Doesn't Suck
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Wickenburg, AZ
Posts: 7,688
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This was a BIG loss for McCain.... The polls had him up by a point, and he ended up losing by 9 points. Losing this primary was bad enough, but I think this one will really hurt his fundraising, an area where he's had some real trouble.
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I've not seen it all nor done it all, but it's close.......
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January 16th, 2008, 04:32 AM
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#8
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Chopped Liver Moderator
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 34,832
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Quote:
Originally Posted by UncleChris
This was a BIG loss for McCain.... The polls had him up by a point, and he ended up losing by 9 points. Losing this primary was bad enough, but I think this one will really hurt his fundraising, an area where he's had some real trouble.
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Not really that big of a loss. Obama was up as many as 12 points and lost in NH.
The moral of the story is to not trust polls. |
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January 16th, 2008, 05:32 AM
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#9
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Killer Snail
Join Date: May 2002
Location: Scottsdale
Posts: 30,830
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I tend to agree more with UC on this - this gives Romney new life - a loss might have finished him off, and McCain was counting on Michigan - since he took 56% of the vote in 2000. McCain is devasted by this.
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R.I.P Tim Minnick
The KING of Cards
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January 16th, 2008, 05:34 AM
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#10
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Chopped Liver Moderator
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 34,832
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dback Jon
I tend to agree more with UC on this - this gives Romney new life - a loss might have finished him off, and McCain was counting on Michigan - since he took 56% of the vote in 2000. McCain is devasted by this.
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I think that this win is more about Romney winning, than it is about McCain losing.
We can disagree on this. |
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January 16th, 2008, 07:06 AM
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#11
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H.S.
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: The Aventine
Posts: 35,345
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When I tuned into the democratic debate last night, MSNBC had projected Romney the winner with only 9% of the precincts in. How can they do that?
At the time, Romney only had a 6% lead on McCain. At one point, that lead jumped to 12%...couldn't that 6% swing just as easily have gone McCain's way?
I'm sure they know what they're doing, I'm not questioning that...I'm just curious about the mehtod.
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January 16th, 2008, 07:08 AM
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#12
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Chopped Liver Moderator
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 34,832
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pariah
When I tuned into the democratic debate last night, MSNBC had projected Romney the winner with only 9% of the precincts in. How can they do that?
At the time, Romney only had a 6% lead on McCain. At one point, that lead jumped to 12%...couldn't that 6% swing just as easily have gone McCain's way?
I'm sure they know what they're doing, I'm not questioning that...I'm just curious about the mehtod.
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Their projection method didnt work for Florida in the 2000 general election. |
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January 16th, 2008, 07:14 AM
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#13
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Goodbye, Sir. Thank You
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: MESA! :thud:
Posts: 24,385
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pariah
When I tuned into the democratic debate last night, MSNBC had projected Romney the winner with only 9% of the precincts in. How can they do that?
At the time, Romney only had a 6% lead on McCain. At one point, that lead jumped to 12%...couldn't that 6% swing just as easily have gone McCain's way?
I'm sure they know what they're doing, I'm not questioning that...I'm just curious about the mehtod.
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it's always bugged me too. I'm sure a lot of it has to do with exit polling, though.
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dreamcastrocks--My Hero!!
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January 16th, 2008, 08:23 AM
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#14
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A Whole New World
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: On another planet
Posts: 40,799
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It's based on exit polls, how they track with actual results and then a statistical extrapolation of that data. 9% is an enormous sample size.
The results just have to come in in a set variance of the poll results margin of error, and once comfortable they will call a state.
Florida was weird, and they have made adjustments in their calculations since. It's pretty accurate, but really tight races they can mess up, thus they are highly likely to not make a call these days.
__________________
You see, Cards fans, when you love a team without likin' it, the games can be long and cold, and contempt comes up with the sun...
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January 16th, 2008, 08:35 AM
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#15
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Too much good stuff
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Is everything
Posts: 13,712
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dreamcastrocks
The moral of the story is to not trust polls.
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You know, about a year ago I got totally raked over the coals for questioning the validity of polling data in general. Can't remember who it was, but one poster in particular gave me a really hard time when I said I didn't believe that a 1,000 person random poll could accurately speak for a country of millions (or even NH I guess). Wonder where that person is now??????
Last edited by Rivercard; January 16th, 2008 at 08:40 AM.
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