Absolute Zero

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...obama-225.html

Check out that Graph.

Remember polls don't vote and it is very early, but McCain is going to need to do something to stop this trend. President Bush recommending McCain tonight at the RNC convention is not the answer.

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CardsFan88

He's cracking 50 in some of those polls. That's a pretty big threshold to get to.

One thing that regardless of circumstances involving hurricanes and trying to follow up what the dems did and trying to match it on substance, is that they only have 3 days to do it in. Less time to hammer home the message, and I also see their main speakers don't plan on speaking until about 11 pm eastern time (at least tonight)???

Less days, and on later should mean fewer viewers. Which should mean less impact on voters.

Even if they somehow pull a rabbit out of their hat and surpass what the dems did...which I'm confident in saying will never happen, their setup won't garner the same attention. So in a sense they need to do even better, and that just won't happen.

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99+ percent fall into this category in regards to economics epitomized in a quote by Jack Nicholson from "A Few Good Men"...."You can't handle the (economic) truth". That's a fact. When the tsunami comes, what do you think will happen to the clueless ostriches? All so needless. All so certain. Don't blame me that the economists don't know economics one bit. Blame yourself for believing in the false dichotomy of competing ivory tower wizards.

SB Victory....In the Cards....someday?!?

Absolute Zero

Good points. I don't see how they are going to pull it off with all the negative focus on Palin.

People are starting to refer to her as "scary". Check out the comments on this article about her speech about praying about Iraq as God's plan. http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archi...2/1327574.aspx

This may play well with some Repubs, but I agree with those who say a lot of Independents are getting freaked out by her.

I wouldn't be suprised if the eggheads in McCain's campaign are starting to seriously consider having Palin withdraw her name from the nomination by the end of the convention. She could do this gracefully out of concern for her family and they could have Romney step in and try to salvage things before this whole thing implodes.

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Evil Ash

Actually for Obama that bounce is very minor considering when it is taking place. There will likely be a bounce back for McCain after the RNC.

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se7en

Item after item, failure after failure, scary story after scary story and still McCain's numbers are high. It just shouldn't be this close. I always say that half of America is stupid or ignorant, but I can't believe that it's this bad.

People are going to get it eventually, right? This country can't survive 4 more years of failed Republican policy and leadership (it would be the nail in the coffin for America as we know it).

CardsFan88

I would say that a couple of weeks from now it'll sink in. Some people will reach a threshold in whack-o-ness. Others haven't tuned in as much. I just feel there is a lag in the polls. People need to talk with their peers and discuss things, etc. I'd say a week or two after a major event is probably a good measuring stick of how it'll effect things.

Don't forget that 28 percent or so still favor bush. So, if that 28 percent is fixed. There is really only a few percentage points of people that can be realistically swayed. If only 15 percent can be swayed, 7 points would be basically half of them. (If you consider the repubs side, not the entire electorate)

I wouldn't expect bounces to be as high as in the past. With all the media coverage, 24 hours news channels, and the internet...I just don't see how as many people can be swayed by a convention. It might sound like spin, but if you take the above reasoning into account, that bounce via those polls, is rather large, and I don't think you could expect much more than that.

It'll be interesting to see if they get a bounce. Palin's disasters might keep it even, or even decrease it. I'd be shocked if this convention changes McCain's numbers more than two, maybe three precentage points in the polls (favorably that is). But with all the flag waving sympbols over substance, the reminder of katrina, less time, more rhetoric, and Palin, again I don't see much of a bump if any.

I can see a small bump, but I think he's going to decrease in polls, if the next two days on Palin continue like the last two.

But I definitely can be wrong.

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99+ percent fall into this category in regards to economics epitomized in a quote by Jack Nicholson from "A Few Good Men"...."You can't handle the (economic) truth". That's a fact. When the tsunami comes, what do you think will happen to the clueless ostriches? All so needless. All so certain. Don't blame me that the economists don't know economics one bit. Blame yourself for believing in the false dichotomy of competing ivory tower wizards.

SB Victory....In the Cards....someday?!?

Duckjake

I'm still sticking with my prediction earlier this year that this election will be just like the LBJ/Goldwater election in 1964.

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