I would say that a couple of weeks from now it'll sink in. Some people will reach a threshold in whack-o-ness. Others haven't tuned in as much. I just feel there is a lag in the polls. People need to talk with their peers and discuss things, etc. I'd say a week or two after a major event is probably a good measuring stick of how it'll effect things.
Don't forget that 28 percent or so still favor bush. So, if that 28 percent is fixed. There is really only a few percentage points of people that can be realistically swayed. If only 15 percent can be swayed, 7 points would be basically half of them. (If you consider the repubs side, not the entire electorate)
I wouldn't expect bounces to be as high as in the past. With all the media coverage, 24 hours news channels, and the internet...I just don't see how as many people can be swayed by a convention. It might sound like spin, but if you take the above reasoning into account, that bounce via those polls, is rather large, and I don't think you could expect much more than that.
It'll be interesting to see if they get a bounce. Palin's disasters might keep it even, or even decrease it. I'd be shocked if this convention changes McCain's numbers more than two, maybe three precentage points in the polls (favorably that is). But with all the flag waving sympbols over substance, the reminder of katrina, less time, more rhetoric, and Palin, again I don't see much of a bump if any.
I can see a small bump, but I think he's going to decrease in polls, if the next two days on Palin continue like the last two.
But I definitely can be wrong.
99+ percent fall into this category in regards to economics epitomized in a quote by Jack Nicholson from "A Few Good Men"...."You can't handle the (economic) truth". That's a fact. When the tsunami comes, what do you think will happen to the clueless ostriches? All so needless. All so certain. Don't blame me that the economists don't know economics one bit. Blame yourself for believing in the false dichotomy of competing ivory tower wizards.
SB Victory....In the Cards....someday?!?