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WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Satellite images taken at night show heavily Sunni Arab neighborhoods of Baghdad began emptying before a U.S. troop surge in 2007, graphic evidence of ethnic cleansing that preceded a drop in violence, according to a report published on Friday.
The images support the view of international refugee organizations and Iraq experts that a major population shift was a key factor in the decline in sectarian violence, particularly in the Iraqi capital, the epicenter of the bloodletting in which hundreds of thousands were killed.
Minority Sunni Arabs were driven out of many neighborhoods by Shi'ite militants enraged by the bombing of the Samarra mosque in February 2006. The bombing, blamed on the Sunni militant group al Qaeda, sparked a wave of sectarian violence.
"By the launch of the surge, many of the targets of conflict had either been killed or fled the country, and they turned off the lights when they left," geography professor John Agnew of the University of California Los Angeles, who led the study, said in a statement.
"Essentially, our interpretation is that violence has declined in Baghdad because of intercommunal violence that reached a climax as the surge was beginning," said Agnew, who studies ethnic conflict.
Some 2 million Iraqis are displaced within Iraq, while 2 million more have sought refuge in neighboring Syria and Jordan. Previously religiously mixed neighborhoods of Baghdad became homogenized Sunni or Shi'ite Muslim enclaves.
The study, published in the journal Environment and Planning A, provides more evidence of ethnic conflict in Iraq, which peaked just before U.S. President George W. Bush ordered the deployment of about 30,000 extra U.S. troops.
The extent to which the troop build-up helped halt Iraq's slide into sectarian civil war has been debated, particularly in the United States, with supporters of the surge saying it was the main contributing factor, and others arguing it was simply one of a number of factors.
"Our findings suggest that the surge has had no observable effect, except insofar as it has helped to provide a seal of approval for a process of ethno-sectarian neighborhood homogenization that is now largely achieved," Agnew's team wrote in their report.
Agnew's team used publicly available infrared night imagery from a weather satellite operated by the U.S. Air Force.
"The overall night light signature of Baghdad since the U.S. invasion appears to have increased between 2003 and 2006 and then declined dramatically from 20 March 2006 through 16 December 2007," their report said.
They said the night lights of Shi'ite-dominated Sadr City remained constant, as did lights in the Green Zone government and diplomatic compound in central Baghdad. Lights increased in the eastern New Baghdad district, another Shi'ite enclave.
Satellite studies have also been used to help document forced relocations in Myanmar and ethnic cleansing in Uganda.
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Well.... THAT can't be right!!!! Surely everyone knows (including both McCain and Obama) that the surge WORkED!!! Right? RIGHT????????
Just a wee bit o'
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Here's to the Army and Navy and the battles they have won; here's to America's colors, the colors that never run. May the wings of liberty never lose a feather. ....
Very true. It's one of the things that I wonder he could take back or wouldn't have said it, if he weren't on O'Reilly. It appeared to be by his body language that he was trying to extend an olive branch.......
Stupid assertion by Obama for a number of reasons..... I'm sure he's hoping nobody remembers he said, "the surge worked...."
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Here's to the Army and Navy and the battles they have won; here's to America's colors, the colors that never run. May the wings of liberty never lose a feather. ....
Stupid assertion by Obama for a number of reasons..... I'm sure he's hoping nobody remembers he said, "the surge worked...."
Nobody would if he hadn't said it so grandly.
"I think that the surge has succeeded in ways that nobody anticipated," Obama told O'Reilly in an interview taped Thursday in York, PA. "It's succeeded beyond our wildest dreams."
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I'm the anti-TNT. I don't do drama.
"I think that the surge has succeeded in ways that nobody anticipated," Obama told O'Reilly in an interview taped Thursday in York, PA. "It's succeeded beyond our wildest dreams."
You wonder what was going through his mind at that moment..... GAAAAHHHHHH!!!
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Here's to the Army and Navy and the battles they have won; here's to America's colors, the colors that never run. May the wings of liberty never lose a feather. ....
the American people won't care what this survey says because it takes away the mushy feelings they have (and I think we all kind of NEED to have) about SOMETHING our country has done to work. Obama saying anything else on O'Reilly would have been political suicide.
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Rubarb is what makes my feet look cheese!
the American people won't care what this survey says because it takes away the mushy feelings they have (and I think we all kind of NEED to have) about SOMETHING our country has done to work. Obama saying anything else on O'Reilly would have been political suicide.
I'm not so sure.... He's a pretty good speaker and I think he would have been better off (politically) dancing around it than saying what he said.
But you're correct, cheese.... I don't think anyone will care what this survey said so it probably won't haunt him....
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Here's to the Army and Navy and the battles they have won; here's to America's colors, the colors that never run. May the wings of liberty never lose a feather. ....
If the conclusions drawn from the new evidence are indeed true, I don't see any damage to Obama by saying the surge worked. The evidence at the time suggested it did. You can only go by what's in front of you.
What was he supposed to do, deny it despite all evidence to the contrary?
It's okay to change your view on things as the data changes, people. That's not flip-flopping, it's called informed opinion.
__________________ America cannot have an empire abroad and a Republic at home.
If the conclusions drawn from the new evidence are indeed true, I don't see any damage to Obama by saying the surge worked. The evidence at the time suggested it did. You can only go by what's in front of you.
What was he supposed to do, deny it despite all evidence to the contrary?
It's okay to change your view on things as the data changes, people. That's not flip-flopping, it's called informed opinion.
Quite true, in a vacuum, I think. In the real world, one must watch every word. I really don't think he had anything to gain by being so definitive. He should have gotten out his Gene Kelly shoes on this one.
Good point though, Pariah....
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Here's to the Army and Navy and the battles they have won; here's to America's colors, the colors that never run. May the wings of liberty never lose a feather. ....
Hold on a minute folks. Remember this is the gospel according to one: Geography professor John Agnew of the University of California Los Angeles, who led the study.
The surge worked. Period.
Baghdad is almost exclusively Sunni. Sadr city (formerly Saddam City) is a suburb (if memory serves) to the east and somewhat north of Baghdad. Picture Scottsdale as it relates to the rest of metro phoenix.
Sadr City is all Shiite. Very poor and long oppressed. The U.S. made a conscious effort to get power back to the Shiites. Baghdad has one major powerplant sitting smack in the center of the city. Once the restrictions and sanctions were placed on the Saddam regime not allowing purchasing of equipment to further his nuclear program the people suffered. This was because alot of the same items used for his nuke stuff was also used in the cooling towers of the plant, and the plant had to be drawn down just to keep running.
The powerplant has four towers. There was usually only one (rarely two) of the towers running. Very degraded output. Rolling blackouts were the norm under Saddam. But Sadr city always got screwed. The U.S. had a hell of a time getting that plant running again. It took years. Power was cut at night because ac units and lighting weren't considered necessary at night.
We appeased the Shiites by giving them what they rarely ever had. Electricity.
The bad guys (predominately) were the Sunnis. We went after them at night. The night is a soldier's friend. "Night hides not."
The surge was also much more than just Baghdad. It was the entire Sunni triangle. Fallujah and Mosul.
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Bob Melvin is an idiot. Period.
Last edited by HarleyRider; September 19th, 2008 at 05:40 PM.
Hold on a minute folks. Remember this is the gospel according to one: Geography professor John Agnew of the University of California Los Angeles, who led the study.
The surge worked. Period.
Baghdad is almost exclusively Sunni. Sadr city (formerly Saddam City) is a suburb (if memory serves) to the east and somewhat north of Baghdad. Picture Scottsdale as it relates to the rest of metro phoenix.
Sadr City is all Shiite. Very poor and long oppressed. The U.S. made a conscious effort to get power back to the Shiites. Baghdad has one major powerplant sitting smack in the center of the city. Once the restrictions and sanctions were placed on the Saddam regime not allowing purchasing of equipment to further his nuclear program the people suffered. This was because alot of the same items used for his nuke stuff was also used in the cooling towers of the plant, and the plant had to be drawn down just to keep running.
The powerplant has four towers. There was usually only one (rarely two) of the towers running. Very degraded output. Rolling blackouts were the norm under Saddam. But Sadr city always got screwed. The U.S. had a hell of a time getting that plant running again. It took years. Power was cut at night because ac units and lighting weren't considered necessary at night.
We appeased the Shiites by giving them what they rarely ever had. Electricity.
The bad guys (predominately) were the Sunnis. We went after them at night. The night is a soldier's friend. "Night hides not."
The surge was also much more than just Baghdad. It was the entire Sunni triangle. Fallujah and Mosul.
You don't believe that the U.S funding Sunni militias has anything to do with it? We already funded the Shia militias, so now I guess we're funding all sides of this war.
Harley, you have a potentially valid point.... We don't really know anything about the study. Two things I do know, though...1. It's not the gospel of one.... there undoubtedly were many involved in both the evalutation of data and the preparation of the report, and 2. We don't have enough information to pass any valid judgement on the report.
That being said, I suspect that it IS true, at least in part, based upon the summary in the news report. If we can get a look at the study somehow, then we'll know for sure......
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Here's to the Army and Navy and the battles they have won; here's to America's colors, the colors that never run. May the wings of liberty never lose a feather. ....
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