By JONATHAN ROOS
REGISTER STAFF WRITER
Copyright 2007, Des Moines Registerand Tribune Company
May 20, 2007
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Presidential candidate
John Edwards leads rivals Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton in a new Des Moines Register poll of Iowans likely to take part in the Democratic caucuses.
The Iowa Poll shows Edwards, a former U.S. senator from North Carolina, is the first choice of 29 percent of those who say they definitely or probably will attend the January caucuses, which kick off the nominating process for the nation.
Obama, a U.S. senator from Illinois, edges out Clinton for second place in the poll — 23 percent to 21 percent.
Also in double digits at this early stage of the race is New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, the choice of 10 percent of likely caucus participants. Presidential preferences include people leaning toward supporting a candidate.
Four other candidates for the Democratic presidential nomination are at the back of the pack: U.S. Sen. Joe Biden of Delaware at 3 percent, U.S. Rep. Dennis Kucinich of Ohio at 2 percent, former U.S. Sen. Mike Gravel of Alaska at 1 percent and U.S. Sen. Christopher Dodd of Connecticut with no measurable support.
That leaves 11 percent who are unsure about whom to support or are uncommitted.
The Iowa Poll, taken May 12-16, has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.
Other polls taken this month in Iowa have had either Edwards or Clinton narrowly in front.
While Clinton leads the field in national polls of Democratic voters, the New York senator and former first lady has her work cut out for her in Iowa. Edwards, a dogged campaigner, has almost made Iowa his second home since first making a bid for the White House four years ago. Edwards surged to a second-place finish in the 2004 Democratic caucuses and went on to become the running mate of
John Kerry in their losing campaign against Republican incumbent George W. Bush.
Edwards’ familiarity to Iowa Democrats appears to have bred much more respect than contempt. Eight in 10 likely caucus participants have favorable feelings about the candidate, according to the Iowa Poll. They include Dean Hundahl, a retired salesman from Iowa Falls who observed Edwards campaigning there four years ago.
“He made a very good impression,” said Hundahl, 63. “He seems like someone who has some of the answers to problems like health care, and I share his views on the war” in Iraq.
Edwards also has an edge over his competitors in Iowa for the labor vote, a key Democratic constituency. He is the first choice of 36 percent of likely caucus participants from households with a union member. Clinton captures the support of 26 percent of that group and Obama gets 21 percent. Obama, one of the new faces in the 2008 presidential race, enjoys favorability ratings nearly as high as Edwards in the poll. He’s also the most popular second choice of likely caucus participants, cited by 25 percent. That compares with 22 percent for Edwards and 19 percent for Clinton.
“I’m a black American, and I feel maybe he can do something about the war,” said poll participant Bessie Harris, 57, of Waterloo. “I don’t like the young people just losing their lives.”
Harris, a fast-food restaurant employee, said she isn’t concerned that Obama doesn’t have as much experience as some of the other candidates. President Bush “has experience but what has he done? So I don’t think that has anything to do with it.”
Like Edwards and Obama, nearly everyone planning to attend the Democratic caucuses has an opinion about Clinton, the third-place finisher in the poll. But overall, those opinions aren’t quite as positive. About two-thirds have favorable feelings toward her and nearly one-third look upon her unfavorably.
On the other hand, Clinton’s quest to become the first woman elected president gives her at least a small advantage in Iowa. Nearly one-fourth of likely caucus participants say they are more likely to support a candidate for that reason, while just 9 percent say less likely. The rest say it makes no difference.
“She’s a woman and I’m a woman and we’re way overdue,” said poll respondent Kay Frances Scott, 63, of Salix in western Iowa.
“She’s a seasoned politician. She’s very, very smart and I always liked her health care initiative when her husband was president,” said Scott, a writer and actor and teacher.
The Iowa Poll also shows that seeking election as the first black president, as Obama is trying to do, is somewhat more of a plus than a minus. Fifteen percent say it makes them more likely to support that person; 8 percent, less likely; 76 percent, no difference.
Sentiment turns slightly negative when it comes to electing the first Hispanic president, which would apply to Richardson if he makes it to the White House. Eight percent say it makes them more likely to support that person; 12 percent, less likely; 79 percent, no difference.
Despite that small red flag for Richardson, getting double-digit support in the poll with nearly eight months left of campaigning before the caucuses should give his supporters some encouragement.
In 2003, with just six months of campaigning ahead of the Democratic caucuses, Edwards received the support of just 5 percent in an Iowa Poll. He finished as the runner-up by receiving the equivalent of 32 percent of Iowa’s delegates in the caucuses.
Scott, the poll participant from Salix, is impressed with Richardson’s credentials. The New Mexico governor “is in a position to deal with the immigration issue,” she said. “He seems to have some stature on the world stage” as a former ambassador to the United Nations and nominee for the Nobel Peace Prize.
The poll shows, however, that Richardson is not as well known in Iowa as the top three contenders. That’s also a problem for the four Democratic candidates who trail him.
There’s plenty of time and plenty of opportunity for candidates to make a move — or lose their footing — in Iowa. According to the poll, 78 percent of likely caucus participants with a presidential preference could be persuaded to support another candidate as their first choice.
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