Originally Posted by AZZenny

Hamas Wants War

By David Frum
Posted: Monday, May 21, 2007

Will Israel be provoked into another war this summer? Hamas in Gaza is desperately trying to start a fight. In mid-April, Hamas ended a six-month pause and resumed firing rockets into southern Israel. Three thousand rockets have landed in the past month; 80 in just the past three days. (That's more than I've seen reported anywhere else -- I think it's more like 10-20 a day)

So far, damage from the rockets has been relatively light: 18 Israelis wounded, property damaged (note: now two deaths). But twice, Hamas nearly got lucky: on Thursday, a rocket exploded in a high school classroom; another hit a day-care centre on May 7. Both facilities happened to be empty at the time. What if they had been in use?

Israel hit back with five air strikes on Thursday and Friday. But few imagine that these strikes will stop the rockets.

The rocket that finally reaches an Israeli day-care centre may be fired tomorrow. Or the next day. And then it will be very difficult for any Israeli government to restrain itself.

Israel desperately wants not to invade Gaza. Over the past year, Hamas has fortified the region: building bunkers, digging ditches, planting mines. Israelis can recognize a military trap when they see one.

Israelis can also recognize a political trap. For months, Gaza's political factions have waged war on each other. Some 45 Palestinians have died in the fighting in just the past week. Hamas hopes that an Israeli invasion would unite the Gazans against Israel--and under Hamas.


It's not clear that "Fatah" still exists as a political organization. Yasser Arafat's old terror gang has collapsed into factionalism and warlordism. The troops and arms shipped (by the US) into Gaza today--for whom are they really working?
--Would Hamas not score a huge propaganda triumph if it could accuse Fatah of fighting for Israel?

It is a little-known fact that international aid to the Palestinian territories has actually risen since Palestinians elected a Hamas government in January, 2006. According to International Monetary Fund and UN figures, the Palestinian areas received a total of $1.2 billion in official aid in 2006, up from $1 billion in 2005.
America's contribution rose from $400 million in 2005 to $468 million in 2006. Aid from the European Union and other international organizations also increased handsomely, and the UN has called for still greater increases in aid in 2007.

Look at the incentives that have been created for the Palestinians: vote for terrorism, get an increase in your foreign aid. The Palestinian areas now receive more than $300 per person, per year, making them the most aid-dependent population on Earth. (The people of sub-Saharan Africa receive only $44 per person per year.)

What if those incentives changed? What if Hamas's misconduct produced a loss rather than a profit? (Iran has reportedly sent nearly $100M to Hamas in the last year also.)
Suppose that each Hamas rocket cost the Palestinian Authority $1 million in reduced U.S. and EU aid? The 80 rockets fired over recent days would mean $80 million less in salaries, food, aid, subsidies of all kinds. The next 80 rockets--another $80 million gone.

But if the aid continues--if the world continues a policy of sending money to the Palestinian territories, no matter what the Palestinian government does--Israel, Gaza and the world stand just one well-aimed rocket away from war.

They still can't actually aim Qassam rockets at a particular target, but they have upgraded them - with Iranian help, reportedly - to produce a larger explosion and to be somewhat more aim-able and to go a bit farther. They are on the verge of hitting a major port city.

Given that all reporters and NGOs say that life in Gaza is terrible even apart from the nonstop gang warfare -- garbage uncollected for months, etc. -- 1) where is this money going and 2) makes you wonder if putting the face of poverty forward isn't a deliberate media-savvy political decision. I have not heard complaints that basic medical needs and food are lacking, as was reported six or eight months ago.

The only rationale for all this is Hamas' intention not to play an Arafatesque game of indefinite attrition as everyone expects, but to provoke the kind of ferocious Israeli response that will let Syria and Iran enter the battle, while increasing sympathy on the Arab street.