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Top investor sees U.S. property crash
Wed Mar 14, 2007 12:59PM EDT
By Elif Kaban
MOSCOW (Reuters) - Commodities investment guru Jim Rogers stepped into the U.S. subprime fray on Wednesday, predicting a real estate crash that would trigger defaults and spread contagion to emerging markets.
"You can't believe how bad it's going to get before it gets any better," the prominent U.S. fund manager told Reuters by telephone from New York.
"It's going to be a disaster for many people who don't have a clue about what happens when a real estate bubble pops.
"It is going to be a huge mess," said Rogers, who has put his $15 million belle epoque mansion on Manhattan's Upper West Side on the market and is planning to move to Asia.
Worries about losses in the U.S. mortgage market have sent stock prices falling in Asia and Europe, with shares in financial services companies falling the most.
Some investors fear the problems of lenders who make subprime loans to people with weak credit histories are spreading to mainstream financial firms and will worsen the U.S. housing slowdown.
"Real estate prices will go down 40-50 percent in bubble areas. There will be massive defaults. This time it'll be worse because we haven't had this kind of speculative buying in U.S. history," Rogers said.
"When markets turn from bubble to reality, a lot of people get burned."
The fund manager, who co-founded the Quantum Fund with billionaire investor George Soros in the 1970s and has focused on commodities since 1998, said the crisis would spread to emerging markets which he said now faced a prolonged bear run.
"When you have a financial crisis, it reverberates in other financial markets, especially in those with speculative excess," he said.
"Right now, there is huge speculative excess in emerging markets around the world. There will be a lot of money coming out of emerging markets.
"I've sold out of emerging markets except for China," said Rogers, long a prominent China bull.
Even in China, the world's fastest expanding economy, Rogers said stocks were overvalued and could go down 30-40 percent.
But he added: "China is one of the few countries in the world where I'm willing to sit out a 30-40 percent decline."
The last stock market bubble to burst was the dot-com craze which sparked a crash from March 2000 to October 2002.
When the last bubble burst in Japan, said Rogers, stock prices went down 85 percent despite the country's high savings rate and huge balance of payment surplus.
"This is the end of the liquidity party," said Rogers. "Some emerging markets will go down 80 percent, some will go down 50 percent. Some will most probably collapse."
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This guy is supposed to be smart?? He puts his $15 million NYC property on the market, when the market is supposedly in "freefall"?? I thought smart guys buy low and sell high???
This guy is supposed to be smart?? He puts his $15 million NYC property on the market, when the market is supposedly in "freefall"?? I thought smart guys buy low and sell high???
High end homes dont suffer during downturns, for the super rich usually stay super rich....
High end homes dont suffer during downturns, for the super rich usually stay super rich....
You know rich people do run our lives to a large degree because they buy votes, but in the end if people stayed involved like they should it wouldn't happen to the degree it does.
The rich aren't the problem IMO, in fact they are more of a sideshow to the real problem and that's the lack of fundamental understanding of our own government and the lack of individuals will to impose good oversight on it.
Trusting some politician to have your best interests at heart or waiting for some white knight Kennedy esque savior is going to be a dissapointing world view almost 99% of the time.
The truth is we get what we allow, sure politicians are always testing limits of what we'll allow, they'll lie, cheat and steal just as much as they think they can get away with, the problem again is that when they test a limit and find little resistance they go farther.
We're our only hope and that's a scary thought at the moment.
__________________
At what point then is the approach of danger to be expected? I answer, if it ever reach us, it must spring up amongst us. It cannot come from abroad. If destruction be our lot, we must ourselves be its author and finisher. As a nation of freemen, we must live through all time, or die by suicide.
Indeed... your collective bitterness towards those who have made their riches is indeed, painfully obvious...
...as is your ignorance on the subject.
The fact that you equate understanding the housing market with "bitterness towards those who have made their riches" is completely without merit, there's no connection. Leads one to believe this subject isn't the only area you lack knowledge. Way to revert to your typical radical right wing assumptions.
...as is your ignorance on the subject.
The fact that you equate understanding the housing market with "bitterness towards those who have made their riches" is completely without merit, there's no connection. Leads one to believe this subject isn't the only area you lack knowledge. Way to revert to your typical radical right wing assumptions.
No assumptions... Your disdain for wealth & any resulting power it may bring has often been on display and is always fully transparent. Don't hide from who you really are KloD... Have the balls to be who you are and be proud of it!
Now - go back and make my posts look like ************... You were much more of a platable sort when you read asterisks versus words!
No assumptions... Your disdain for wealth & any resulting power it may bring has often been on display and is always fully transparent. Don't hide from who you really are KloD... Have the balls to be who you are and be proud of it!
Prove it. Show me where this obvious display is? You can't... instead you just make crap up. Nice try, but your ignorance is on full display.
Fact is, you have no idea what my financial situation is.. not a clue. As usual you just keep making those assumptions...
You assume that as a liberal, I must be poor. Therefore, why do you hate poor people so much? Your various displays against poor people is without a doubt obvious. Why do you think all poor people who disagree with you are stupid?
That's what you sound like, that's 82 logic at its finest. Do you literally go out of your way to avoid making sound arguments?
Prove it. Show me where this obvious display is? You can't... instead you just make crap up. Nice try, but your ignorance is on full display.
Fact is, you have no idea what my financial situation is.. not a clue. As usual you just keep making those assumptions...
You assume that as a liberal, I must be poor. Therefore, why do you hate poor people so much? Your various displays against poor people is without a doubt obvious. Why do you think all poor people who disagree with you are stupid?
That's what you sound like, that's 82 logic at its finest. Do you literally go out of your way to avoid making sound arguments?
KloD, don't get too upset buddy but I honestly couldn't care any less about your financial position... Nor would I somehow equate being liberal with poverty... I would say that most who are poor, and who are liberal, feel as though they are "owed" more from the "rich man". Versus poor conservatives who more readily accept their position and embrace the notion that the path towards improving their position starts with themselves, not with the government or the nasty rich man...
I don't hate poor people at all KloD. I personally help the underprivledged in a wide variety of ways. My entire family actually gets involved.
I don't appreciate poor liberals who believe they are owed more, versus taking the responsibility to improve their situation.
And most importantly - ************************************, ******************************* - *****!
KloD, don't get too upset buddy but I honestly couldn't care any less about your financial position... Nor would I somehow equate being liberal with poverty... I would say that most who are poor, and who are liberal, feel as though they are "owed" more from the "rich man". Versus poor conservatives who more readily accept their position and embrace the notion that the path towards improving their position starts with themselves, not with the government or the nasty rich man...
I don't hate poor people at all KloD. I personally help the underprivledged in a wide variety of ways. My entire family actually gets involved.
I don't appreciate poor liberals who believe they are owed more, versus taking the responsibility to improve their situation.
And most importantly - ************************************, ******************************* - *****!
Wow... your reading comprehension skills could use a little tune up.
Cosmic Defender Champion!
Prove it. Show me where this obvious display is? You can't... instead you just make crap up. Nice try, but your ignorance is on full display. 
Wow... your reading comprehension skills could use a little tune up.
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