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Probably the smart move is find out what I'm doing, and do the opposite.
I checked today my 401k is down 33K for the year, IRA 31K. 401K is 40% money market or it'd be much worse. I moved the IRA out of money market(100%) into the stock market a few months ago, it's down nearly 30% since then just brutal fall. it's in one of those managed stock funds Fidelity has you pick it based on your age and years to retirement.
I told Jeff this offline. Last week I was going to buy DUG at 42, I had been practice trading it for a few weeks after he and SWD mentioned it on the board(Dig and Dug). I was going to buy 2K of it but I chickened out, afraid OPEC would cut supplies.
DUG hit 85 today before closing just under 75. In theory I could have doubled my money in 6 days if I'd bought. Obviously I wouldn't have held to 85 but I would have made money for sure.
Like Bush I am the contra indicator in this market.
I'm down 12% for the past 3 months and 22% for the year.
I've been resisting my advisor's suggestion to put more of my large supply of cash (in several different banks) into investments for the past year, and she just told me she's glad for my sake that I was so adamant. (She didn't apologize for repeatedly telling me I was irrationally nervous about the global economy, however.)
__________________ Hoping for Audacity
Well, in truth I'm actually not a total hawk, but I'm not a dove either -- I'm more like an angry pigeon flying over the political arena after a really big meal. -Abba Gav
My advice for what it's worth which is nothing and I'm not a licensed securities dealer would be to Tag along with Warren Buffett, buy rail stocks, they're beat down now, if you're going to buy anything just wait a bit to make sure the monetary system and planet hold together and buy one of these.
The amount of energy it takes to move goods is way lower here than by truck, we have a lot of dormant tracks that need work, the entire industry is on fire, I know this by talking to borrowers that work in it, they are busy as hell, highly paid and in demand.
Multiyear bull in this one once the smoke clears IMO.
Also look at my crash course thread, it explains a ton of why you want to use energy as your trading thesis backdrop.
Oil is cheap now due to a collapsing system, once it stabilizes and it will then it will be the driver of almost all valuations in some fashion.
People have to eat and are spread out all over creation, moving goods to them cheaply is THE play of our time, if you look at the dynamics of modern life, we cannot continue forever to deliver goods by truck, don't be fooled by short term fluctuations, energy demands and efficiency will drive everything going forward.
Huge moat as Warren likes, you can't just start a railroad, need tracks, right of ways, equipment etc.
__________________
At what point then is the approach of danger to be expected? I answer, if it ever reach us, it must spring up amongst us. It cannot come from abroad. If destruction be our lot, we must ourselves be its author and finisher. As a nation of freemen, we must live through all time, or die by suicide.
~Abraham Lincoln Lyceum Address
Last edited by conraddobler; October 10th, 2008 at 02:55 PM.
On the subject of Gold it is great to own gold in times like this, but it is another thing all together to own gold stocks. The gold stocks are getting absolutely crunched right now.
When I invest I like to get into economic moat companies. For example E-bay, Coke, etc where competition is not fierce and they are getting a 20%+ profit margin on sales.
AKAM Akami 14.12
OII Oceaneering International 28.56 use deep water exploration for drilling
ARAY Acuray 6.02 uses lasers to treat cancer
LDK LDK Solar 19.05 builds solar panels and the best of the bunch
EBAY 16.33
GOOG 332
CELG Celgene 54.02
NVDA 6.84
KSS 31.05
GD General Dynamics 57.39
MA Mastercard 148.00
Here are a few I like. Today I bought some LEAPS in EBAY, DRYS, and OII
My advice for what it's worth which is nothing and I'm not a licensed securities dealer would be to Tag along with Warren Buffett, buy rail stocks, they're beat down now, if you're going to buy anything just wait a bit to make sure the monetary system and planet hold together and buy one of these.
The amount of energy it takes to move goods is way lower here than by truck, we have a lot of dormant tracks that need work, the entire industry is on fire, I know this by talking to borrowers that work in it, they are busy as hell, highly paid and in demand.
Multiyear bull in this one once the smoke clears IMO.
Also look at my crash course thread, it explains a ton of why you want to use energy as your trading thesis backdrop.
Oil is cheap now due to a collapsing system, once it stabilizes and it will then it will be the driver of almost all valuations in some fashion.
People have to eat and are spread out all over creation, moving goods to them cheaply is THE play of our time, if you look at the dynamics of modern life, we cannot continue forever to deliver goods by truck, don't be fooled by short term fluctuations, energy demands and efficiency will drive everything going forward.
Huge moat as Warren likes, you can't just start a railroad, need tracks, right of ways, equipment etc.
Probably the smart move is find out what I'm doing, and do the opposite.
I checked today my 401k is down 33K for the year, IRA 31K. 401K is 40% money market or it'd be much worse. I moved the IRA out of money market(100%) into the stock market a few months ago, it's down nearly 30% since then just brutal fall. it's in one of those managed stock funds Fidelity has you pick it based on your age and years to retirement.
I told Jeff this offline. Last week I was going to buy DUG at 42, I had been practice trading it for a few weeks after he and SWD mentioned it on the board(Dig and Dug). I was going to buy 2K of it but I chickened out, afraid OPEC would cut supplies.
DUG hit 85 today before closing just under 75. In theory I could have doubled my money in 6 days if I'd bought. Obviously I wouldn't have held to 85 but I would have made money for sure.
Like Bush I am the contra indicator in this market.
DUG closed today below $48.
It's right back where it started last Monday, so you have been given a second chance. Not that I think that you should mind you, as this has become so disconnected to the price of oil as to be meaningless. Oil went up a little over a dollar a barrel today, yet DUG dropped $27. Yeow!
If the Market continues to rally, then DIG is the short term play @ around $39 right now. But right now the DIG/DUG relationship is basically betting whether the Dow is going to be up or down on any given day.
= me
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