DWKB

So you don't comment on the perception of a poor economy hurting the Republicans? Just a throw away comment?

GreenCard

Drip - Drip - Drip

Heucrazy

Went your mushroom tip?

Let me guess....you didn't know she had the GI Kung Fu grip?

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82CardsGrad

Hmmm.... Is this even worthy of a response?? The Repubs have held the White House for the past two terms. For most of that period, America, after dealing with the largest terror attack ever commited on our soil, experienced one of its' greatest boom cycles in the history of our nation.

Now, the cycle is slowing while they are in office. Does that "hurt" them? I guess one who have to be some sort of genius to answer that question, huh??

DWKB

This is how most Republicans describe 1984 to 1991 (aside from the terror on our soil). What happened in 1992? Your smartassed answer appears to me 'no'. You aren't with America at large on this, but then you never really are, huh?

conraddobler

The entirety of this event occured under Republican stewardship, now to be fair when the Dems actually got there they did nothing about it but the Republicans presided over the deregulation that allowed this.

Removal of the Glass Steagall act will hit the news wires this year, those who voted against it will be lucky to just get voted out.

That is only one of the regulations, deregulation got to, and to be fair when the Dems were in office they did the same thing.

Blaming someone is pointless at this point, but the leason here is that some regulation is there for a reason.

This allowed new wires from financial bombs that come and go through greed and natural carelessness in the market to connect to the heart of our financial system, the stock market wobbling is only the beginning of our financial horror show.

You have all been kind enough to read this, please believe me when I say that it's only getting started and before this is over you're going to question concepts you've never paid any attention to.

I wish I was wrong.

Good luck all.

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At what point then is the approach of danger to be expected? I answer, if it ever reach us, it must spring up amongst us. It cannot come from abroad. If destruction be our lot, we must ourselves be its author and finisher. As a nation of freemen, we must live through all time, or die by suicide.

~Abraham Lincoln Lyceum Address

LoyaltyisaCurse

Deregulation is the biggest farce ever shoved down the throats of the American public... 99.9% of deregulation hurts the consumer and benefits very few...

There is a reason the regulation was put there...

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Goin' "Double Maverick!"

82CardsGrad

Nope... I'm a "fringe" player!

Russ Smith

THe market actually has recovered well today was down essentially 500 this morning is now down 135, but from what I was hearing on CNBC this morning that may be a bad thing. They were suggesting it would be good if the market retested the lows of the day they said we truly need to feel some pain and bottom before we can start to settle it down?

I'm still sitting on the sidelines with my IRA money, it's all out of stock, my 401k is mixed.

Definitely a scary time with the economy.

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GreenCard

I hear what you are saying conrad,thanks.

Gaddabout

With many thanks to Phu-illl Gruh-ammmm and Citibank. Er, I mean Citigroup.

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the desert gadabout

Shane H

Unless your expecting soem 30 year long depression then I think I will be A-Ok. Thanks for your concern though. I will buy as much as I can during the lengthy downturn ahead. It WILL come back around.

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“They said the road comes through Seattle. We came through here and took care of business.” Anquan Boldin

BirdMan21

For any of you that are interested in reading a great book regarding the economy, stock market and just overall investing strategy....I suggest you read Ken Fisher's book The Only Three Questions That Count. One thing that he does go over in that book is that things can never be as bad or as good as anyone predicts. And if everyone is predicting the same thing (like everyone is predicting a sustained downturn in the stock market), that can't happen for the simple fact it is already priced into the market.

Conrad, I understand where you are coming from with this, and I am in no ways bullish on the market for the upcoming year, but I think things will end up much better than you seem to feel. If you ever are up early in the morning or have TIVO, record some of the international shows on CNBC or watch CNBC over in Europe, while they are concerned about the US Economy, all of them are shifting a large portion of their holdings into the US Market. This is due to two reasons; one the US Dollar is cheap as well as many stocks are undervalued due to the large sell off to start the year (over 8% since Jan 1 I do believe). If you look at large industrial companies such as Honeywell, they are experiencing their best quarters due to more international growth. With the US Dollar being so weak right now, many foreign countries are seeing this as an opportunity to buy quality US goods. I believe that once the Credit Crunch figures itself out and there are no more surprises with these write downs the market will rebound.

So while I don't think we will end up seeing a good year (up 10%+ for the markets), I think we will gain back most to all of this early year loss and probably end up in the -2 to +3% range. I am in no way calling the bottom now, but I think we will get a better feel of the market after next week. Once we get past the Fed meetings and earnings season we will get a good feel for how bad the last quarter actually was. The fact that companies like Apple are still beating earnings shows that people still have money to spend and are spending it.

But, while this is not a great time for the market....I do not believe that we are in for a sustained downturn. I am still holding my current posistions because I am in for the long run.....and like Shane said, unless you are expecting things to trend down for the next 30 years....we will rebound and there are ALOT of good value buys out there right now. There just isnt anyway that every financial and homebuilding stock will stay down forever.

jefftheshark

Great post, but since I personally agree with most everything you said, take that with a grain of salt.

Today was a wild ride that retested the bottom established yesterday morning. If you have the guts to be a daytrader, you could have made a fortune on the interday volatility yesterday and today.

IMHO, If the market begins to believe that the credit crunch is being addressed, then the confidence will return to the market. You can get a sense that the Bulls are just itching to get back in, and that the Bears are getting a little exhausted. The great profits to the downside are no longer as attractive and I think we saw a lot of shorts covering their positions today. Whether or not today turns out to be dead cat bounce is still to be determined, but there was a different feel to the market today that has been missing the last several weeks.

Conrad: while I will not dispute the depth of your concerns and the fact that you might turn out to be ultimately correct in your conclusions, I personally think that you have not taken into account the worldwide resources available for bailing this mess out. The markets are fluid and dynamic enough to roll with the various punches you have foretold. If nothing had been done to address the current situation, I have no doubt that all the bad things you have predicted since last summer would have come to fruition. But since the market is not static, I think that we will avert the worst of what you thought possible.

JTS

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(Thank you very much, Ladies and Germs; I'll be here through Saturday night, don't forget to tip your waitresses on the way out!)

Pariah

There's some durn smart people posting in this thread.