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Presidential Polls: Made to Order
Found this on an electoral college website, makes you really wonder how much we should be paying attention to all these polls:
News from the Votemaster
Some bad news for the polling business. Strategic Vision (R) has a new poll in Ohio showing Bush ahead 52% to 43% there. However, there is also a Lake Snell Perry (D) poll showing the race there to be an exact tie, with both candidates at 46%. It is becoming increasingly clear that the pollsters are producing the results that the people paying the bills want to hear. Even pollsters who were once thought to be above suspicion are now suspicious. Gallup, for example, is now normalizing its samples to include 40% Republicans, even though the 2000 exit polls showed the partisan distribution to be 39% Democratic, 35% Republican. There is scant evidence that the underlying partisan distribution has changed much since then. Other pollsters also normalize their data, but most don't say how. Normalizing the sample to ensure the proper number of women, elderly voters, etc. is legitimate provided that the pollster publicly states what has been done.
Despite a smattering a polls today, none of these mean much on the eve of the first debate. For many people, the debates will determine their votes.
Former President Jimmy Carter, who has monitored elections in dozens of countries around the world, has stated that the election arrangements in Florida do not meet basic international requirements for a fair and honest election. Add four hurricanes to the controversy raging about purging from the rolls people with the same name as a convicted felon and other irregularities and you get a big problem.
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