Imad Mugniyeh Killed by Car Bomb

AZZenny · February 13th, 2008, 04:23 PM

Quote:

The one-time Hezbollah security chief was the suspected mastermind of attacks that killed hundreds of Americans in Lebanon and of the brutal kidnappings of Westerners.

The Lebanese Shiite militant group Hezbollah and its top ally, Iran, blamed Israel on Wednesday for the assassination. Israel denied any involvement, but officials made no effort to conceal their approval of his death.

Mughniyeh was also on the FBI's list of most wanted terrorists, and the U.S. State Department had offered a $5 million reward for information leading to his arrest or conviction. He was indicted in the U.S. for his role in planning the 1985 hijacking of a TWA airliner in which a U.S. Navy diver was killed.

THIS IS BIG. Talk to anyone in the field of counterterrorism, and ask who is the single most dangerous man out there, and most would say Mugniyeh, not OBL. He has served as a connection point between Iranian, Syrian (Hizbullah), and Muslim Brotherhood (Hamas, Islamic Jihad) and AQ terror groups and actions for a long, long time.

Quote:

The name Imad Fayez Mugniyeh is probably not familiar to most Americans, but it is never been far from the minds of most international security experts. As the fighting between Hizballah and Israel continues, analysts and observers would do well to remember Mughniyeh, who may have been the architect of the Hizballah raid that killed eight Israeli soldiers, captured two others, and sparked the current crisis.

Mughniyeh’s long and bloody résumé includes: the April 1983 bombing of the U.S. Embassy in Lebanon; the October 1983 bombing of the U.S. Marine and French paratrooper barracks in Beirut; the 1984 bombing of the U.S. Embassy annex in Lebanon; the 1985 hijacking of TWA Flight 847; numerous kidnappings of Westerners in Beirut throughout the 1980s; the 1992 and 1994 bombings of the Israeli Embassy and a Jewish cultural center in Buenos Aires; the 1996 Khobar Towers bombing; and the 2000 kidnappings of 3 Israeli soldiers in southern Lebanon and of Israeli Colonel Elchanan Tenenbaum, who was lured to Kuwait under false pretenses and then taken to the Hizballah enclave in southern Lebanon.

Imad Mugniyah

I'm opening a bottle of topnotch Israeli Chardonnay tonight and toasting whoever pulled this one off!

Here's an interesting take on it:

Quote:

While America and Israel come first to mind as responsible for Mughniyeh’s death, DEBKAfile’s counter-terror sources note that a possible inside job is worth considering. Dissatisfied with his performance in the 2006 Lebanon War against Israel, Tehran deposed Hizballah’s secretary-general Hassan Nasrallah as its supreme commander and replaced him with Mughniyeh.

Nasrallah was confined to political functions, while his successor was assigned the task of rehabilitating Hizballah militia forces and preparing them for the next war on Israel.

The dead terrorist may have set up his headquarters in Damascus under the protection of Syrian and Iranian security services because he did not feel safe in Lebanon. Penetrating these two security belts to slay the wanted man was undoubtedly an exceptional intelligence feat.

Quote:

February 14 is the third anniversary of former Lebanese prime minister Rafik Hariri's assassination, and Mughniyeh's killing may have been linked to the anti-Syrian camp in Lebanon. Similarly the governments of Lebanon, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq and Israel all have open accounts with Mughniyeh and the Syrian regime that was protecting him. Mughniyeh was the coordinator between Iran and Shi'ite militias in Iraq that target American forces and the Iraqi government. Several Syrian plots have been uncovered in Jordan and Israel over the years.

Hizbullah is promising massive revenge, and Iran and Syria also. Don't be surprised if terrorism alerts in the US and Europe go way up in the coming weeks. This is a huge embarrassment to Iran, Hizbullah, and especially Syria, because it means all three security systems (and Syria actually has four separate ones) were outsmarted, and almost for sure there are multiple moles.

earthsci · February 14th, 2008, 08:44 AM

Have the Israelis confirmed this? Although this would be a great moment I'm a little concerned about confirmation.

AZZenny · February 14th, 2008, 09:31 AM

That's what a lot of people have asked, but so far Syria, Iran and Hizbullah have all confirmed it, and there was no reason for them to make it up -- no one had actually seen this guy for years. The Israelis have accepted it as true, for whatever that's worth, which may suggest they were in on the hit.

Several interesting points have been made -- one, he was being hunted by everyone -- and has been very actively hunted for 25 years. Only three times has anyone been close -- the US almost got him twice in the 80's and 90's, but first France and then the Saudis each protected him in exchange for some deal. Israel almost got him once with Lebanese help. He was a lot more active in populated areas than OBL, traveled a fair amount, but we still couldn't catch him, or even find him. Everyone thought he was living in Iran.

Two, he has been strongly implicated in organizing and training and arming the Mahdi Army in Iraq and also in the development of Hizbullah's superb guerilla warfare capacity and high-tech cpabilities, and has definitely been advising Hamas leaders in Damascus on militarizing Gaza. He also is believed to have at least inspired, if not advised, OBL on 9/11 -- Israeli military intelligence believed at the time and still believes he had to have a hand in it, although it was a little more flamboyant than usual.

He was considered a true 'mastermind' -- an absolute genius at complicated organization, secrecy, and psychological warfare. In the War on Terror, if OBL and the Supreme Leader are Commanders in Chief, he was their shared Secretary of Defense, Joint Chiefs, and Field Marshal in one.

That does mean he will not be easily replaceable, no matter what they are saying. He was one of a kind. He was also one of the only people absolutely trusted by both OBL and the Iranian leadership, although he was a devout Shi'a. It is said both OBL and the Iranian Supreme Leader idolized him and Iran put a lot of resources into protecting him. This is without question a real blow to Iran's sense of security, and Syria's too.

Current suspects are of course Mossad, CIA (unlikely), the Saudis (maybe with Jordan and some Lebanese help -- e.g., Sunni Arab governments), the French (Sarkozy wants to make a name for the French in the War on Terror, and they have tons of Syrian and Lebanese French-Arabs), some branch of Syria's intelligence octopus, and Hizbullah leader Nasrallah. Whoever did it had to have incredible inside contacts for a long time, and that almost certainly means either some Syrian or Hizbullah help.

It makes no sense for Syria to kill him, despite what the Lebanese say (that it would trigger Lebanese civil war) but infighting between Shia and Sunni Syrian intelligence branches is possible. If Israel, US, French, Saudis, etc. saw a chance after watching him for a long time, they had to take it, regardless of the timing.

But the one who would benefit the most, potentially, is definitely Nasrallah!
1) No one would accuse him.
2) The timing let Hizbullah totally overshadow and diminish the planned massive Lebanese rally on the 3rd anniversary of Rafik Hariri's murder. He would like a civil war, but cannot be seen as directly triggering it.
3) He can blame Israel and thus justify in some Lebanese and Arab eyes not only Hizbullah's continued role as a resistance militia, but justifies in advance whatever his next attack on Israeli interests will be.
4) Mugniyeh was indeed his only 'boss' and stood between him and Iranian and Syrian leadership; Nasrallah did not enjoy his demotion to figurehead one bit and was not fond of Mugniyeh. To pull this off would anger but also impress Iran and Syria.
5) He would have been in far and away the best position to pull this off, or to leak information to one of the Western or Israeli agencies to make it happen, and remain above suspicion.

AZZenny · February 15th, 2008, 03:11 PM

Woah -- be really interesting to see where this goes, but Lebanese official sources report that Syria has apprehended several Palestinians in Mugniyeh's death. It is said they are Syrian-resident Palestinians, which would usually suggest either Hamas, or its parent organization, the intensely Sunni Muslim Brotherhood.

The Syrians tried to obliterate the Brotherhood in 1982, by most estimates killing 20,000 or more people in the headquarters city of Hama, Syria. The tension between Shia Alawites who run Syria and the largely Sunni general population have reportedly slowly getting more and more intense under Bashar Assad, who has been increasingly clannish and tribal.

Of course Syrian Palestinians could also be in the pay of Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, the Saudis, the CIA, or Egypt, but to get that close to Mugniyeh, they almost would have had to be in Hamas or the Brotherhood, since he has coordinated with both groups and presumably would feel he knew who to trust.

OR -- there is a branch of one of the many Syrian secret intelligence services that has trained, supported, and run Palestinian terror squads in Lebanon -- its believed some of the car bombings of Lebanese leaders were done that way to help keep Hizbullah's hands clean. There used to be a lot of Sunni officers in Syrian Intel, but they've been increasingly pushed out by Shia Alawites, and Mugniyeh was the #1 Shia mastermind.

AZZenny · February 16th, 2008, 09:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by earthsci

Have the Israelis confirmed this? Although this would be a great moment I'm a little concerned about confirmation.

Yeah, you're not alone:

Some of the theories and rumors swirling around these probes were planted to muddy the waters by Iran, Syria, Hizballah, Israel and some Lebanese quarters.

Arab newspapers, for instance, claimed Saturday that new leads link Arab intelligence services to the crime; ex-Israeli undercover agents pointed the finger at Lebanese Christian Maronites. Syria reports both Palestinians and 'Westerners' have now been detained. (ahem...see 'When we torture' thread and try to imagine what these guys are going through at the hands of Syrian and/or Iranian pros.)

An intriguing conspiracy theory emanating unexpectedly from Western sources was suggested by the veteran CNN correspondent Jim Clancy. In his view, Mughniyeh, the consummate master of deception, may still be alive. Others took the theory further and suggested his death may have been fabricated to provide Iran, Syria and Hizballah with a casus belli to attack Israel, and so repeat the Arabs’ Yom Kippur success 35 years ago in catching Israel unawares.
Mughniyeh’s death, real or phony, provides the motive.

Current rumors include:

-Tehran, Damascus and Hizballah are determined to inflict military-terror punishment on Israel whom they accuse of liquidating their key agent, Imad Mughniyeh.

- Hizballah announced Saturday, Feb. 16, that it had placed 50,000 of its members on the ready for any eventuality (i.e. directives from Tehran). *( It's believed they have at most 10,000 members.)

- Iran’s supreme ruler Ayatollah Ali Khamenei gave the order for Tehran to take charge of the inquiry to identify the hand which killed Mughniyeh, according to Iranian sources.

- Syria has taken offense at the implication of incompetence or involvement, and now denies allowing any Iranian role in the investigation.

- The national team directing Israel’s emergency response was set up without publicity. Yesterday Mossad chief Meir Dagan was given a renewal of his office to the end of 2009. Many will take this announcement as an indirect admission of the Mossad’s responsibility for killing the Hizballah commander and a reward for its director.

The Iranian and Israeli response teams, keeping their cards close to their chests, are tensely watching events, poised to seize control of any unforeseen situation before it gets out of hand.

Four days after Mughniyeh’s death, a military clash appears almost unavoidable.

AZZenny · February 16th, 2008, 06:46 PM

Turns out several Arab and a few Western sources in the last 2 months had reported in early January that Iran agreed to nearly triple Hizbullah's budget to about $1 Billion USD for this year, and related to that, reorganized the top leadership. Hizbullah has a significant criminal/terror presence throughout Africa, Latin America, parts of Asia, the ME, and is well-rooted if smaller in the US and Canada.

A British paper, for what its worth, reports that Mossad definitely did the hit on Mugniyeh (and notes Israel has not for a moment questioned the truth of the reported death) and it was to abort his planning of a 'spectacular attack or series of upcoming attacks on Israel and on Western interests.' There were several related objectives that would try to constitute 'the perfect storm' scenario for Israel, Lebanon, and Iraq (and maybe Jordan) collapsing all at one time.

It is also reported in Arab papers that Mugniyeh had one or more impressive attacks pre-planned to avenge his own death whenever the time came, and that word is they are being polished up by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and Hizbullah for reasonably prompt deployment.

Be careful out there.

ajcardfan · February 16th, 2008, 07:29 PM

http://yalibnan.com/site/archives/20...tter_who_k.php

http://atilla89.wordpress.com/2008/0...gniyehs-death/

Just another couple of takes on this. This really seems to be huge, and very few in the US is really paying attention.

http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satelli...cle%2FShowFull

82CardsGrad · February 16th, 2008, 09:37 PM

Geeez... There's Zenny and AJ playing the Fear card again...

AZZenny · February 16th, 2008, 11:38 PM

Look, one thing this really has proven to me, is how much pure media hype is running the war on terror as we the people know it. Would we dance in the streets if OBL was assassinated? Yeah, and this guy taught both OBL and the Iranian Rev. Guard most of what they know (he really did), advised and planned actions for both, coordinated between them, and was still active -- he was only in his forties. He'd killed over 500-600 Westerners and wounded around 1200 more. Yet only a small handful of people understand how big a deal this really is. (Of course the BBC referred to him as a 'great Lebanese national leader' -- if there's ever any doubt the the UK is way beyond the French in terms of head up their asses-ness...)

I love the idea that this could cause a Syrian-Iranian rift (it is fun that he was assassinated near the Iranian diplomatic area of Damascus and right down the street from the Syrian Secret Police headquarters), even better that Hamas is now under some suspicion. If Mossad DID pull this off and can implicate Syria and Hamas in the process, they really are back up to par. I don't believe Iran took him out unless Stinky felt threatened -- he was Iran's best weapon.

Not fear-mongering at all, 82. Stop and think -- if we assassinate OBL, you don't think there'll be serious revenge attacks all over the place? Well, naive Westerners may be going 'Imad who?' but in the Arab world, he was revered, idolized among jihadis as the one with the real brass balls. If OBL is the Beatles, Mugniyeh was the Rolling Stones. And it does give them a perfect excuse to flagrantly attack Israel and anyone else they can tie in.

82CardsGrad · February 17th, 2008, 07:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AZZenny

Look, one thing this really has proven to me, is how much pure media hype is running the war on terror as we the people know it. Would we dance in the streets if OBL was assassinated? Yeah, and this guy taught both OBL and the Iranian Rev. Guard most of what they know (he really did), advised and planned actions for both, coordinated between them, and was still active -- he was only in his forties. He'd killed over 500-600 Westerners and wounded around 1200 more. Yet only a small handful of people understand how big a deal this really is. (Of course the BBC referred to him as a 'great Lebanese national leader' -- if there's ever any doubt the the UK is way beyond the French in terms of head up their asses-ness...)

I love the idea that this could cause a Syrian-Iranian rift (it is fun that he was assassinated near the Iranian diplomatic area of Damascus and right down the street from the Syrian Secret Police headquarters), even better that Hamas is now under some suspicion. If Mossad DID pull this off and can implicate Syria and Hamas in the process, they really are back up to par. I don't believe Iran took him out unless Stinky felt threatened -- he was Iran's best weapon.

Not fear-mongering at all, 82. Stop and think -- if we assassinate OBL, you don't think there'll be serious revenge attacks all over the place? Well, naive Westerners may be going 'Imad who?' but in the Arab world, he was revered, idolized among jihadis as the one with the real brass balls. If OBL is the Beatles, Mugniyeh was the Rolling Stones. And it does give them a perfect excuse to flagrantly attack Israel and anyone else they can tie in.

Oh - I know Zenny... Only the Republicans do that... When others speak of potential threats from radical terrorist groups, it's everything BUT fear-mongering...
Oh heck - if we (America) would just stop causing all of this strife in the Middle East, we all would rest so much more peacefully and securely, right?

AZZenny · February 17th, 2008, 07:52 AM

Ummm... when there are two angry, embarrassed hostile countries and a well-armed terrorist militia openly TELLING us there will be reprisals, I think that taking them at their word is just plain sensible.

btw, the French busted a half-dozen Arabs including some Lebanese Shias and Syrians last week and found maps of several major European cities with marked targets and very detailed approach and escape routes. They think it was either a kidnap or assassination plot aiming to target several very high-profile Europeans at once.

82CardsGrad · February 17th, 2008, 10:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AZZenny

Ummm... when there are two angry, embarrassed hostile countries and a well-armed terrorist militia openly TELLING us there will be reprisals, I think that taking them at their word is just plain sensible.

btw, the French busted a half-dozen Arabs including some Lebanese Shias and Syrians last week and found maps of several major European cities with marked targets and very detailed approach and escape routes. They think it was either a kidnap or assassination plot aiming to target several very high-profile Europeans at once.

Ummm - when the day comes to pass that some person known as AZZenny on a sports message board in 'lil 'ol Arizona has more ability to speak with authority on terror and why America should wake up & listen, versus our very own government - well, the apocolypse is clearly upon us...

For the record - I AGREE with your presentation of the situation - including your warnings!

AZZenny · February 17th, 2008, 01:50 PM

Did I say I had more authority than our government? Anywhere? You're the only one who brought a snide partisan twist to this.

I'm just reporting what American counterterror experts in and alongside our gov't as well as Israeli, Saudi, Jordanian, Lebanese, and European experts are reporting: Iran, Syria, and Hizbullah have said there will be payback, the best estimate is something fairly soon (whatever that means) and likely against Israel or non-Israeli Jewish civilians, but US or European embassies or military centers overseas are also potential targets. Kidnappings, multiple bombings, or hijackings would be consistent with the preferred Mugniyeh style, but anything is possible.

Our gov't has alerted the FBI to exercise extra vigilance, esp around Jewish centers, although none of the domestic or foreign counter-terrorism experts thinks anything at all is likely on US soil. That would be incredibly and stupidly provocative.

Of course, since you introduce the partisan element, this is exactly the kind of opportunity someone like Karl Rove or Cheney could latch on to -- timing is off though... six months too early.

82CardsGrad · February 17th, 2008, 02:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AZZenny

Did I say I had more authority than our government? Anywhere? You're the only one who brought a snide partisan twist to this.

I'm just reporting what American counterterror experts in and alongside our gov't as well as Israeli, Saudi, Jordanian, Lebanese, and European experts are reporting: Iran, Syria, and Hizbullah have said there will be payback, the best estimate is something fairly soon (whatever that means) and likely against Israel or non-Israeli Jewish civilians, but US or European embassies or military centers overseas are also potential targets. Kidnappings, multiple bombings, or hijackings would be consistent with the preferred Mugniyeh style, but anything is possible.

Our gov't has alerted the FBI to exercise extra vigilance, esp around Jewish centers, although none of the domestic or foreign counter-terrorism experts thinks anything at all is likely on US soil. That would be incredibly and stupidly provocative.

Of course, since you introduce the partisan element, this is exactly the kind of opportunity someone like Karl Rove or Cheney could latch on to -- timing is off though... six months too early.

Zenny - just once try not to take my comments personally...

No - of course you did not claim to be a greater authority than our gov't... My point, which I think was lost on you, is that I simply find your posts in this thread to be extremely ironic, given that we have been hearing similar threats from terrorists of all stripes since 9/11th, threats that our own gov't has mentioned, reminding us of the need to remain vigilent - but always receiving the skeptical, "fear mongering" response from the left.
Now, "we" are suddenly supposed to take heed the warning from terrorists? The irony there is just too rich...
Again Zenny - this has NOTHING to do with you so please refrain from shooting anymore arrows my way. You are simply, and appropriately capturing an incredibly dangerous set of events. It's just too bad our country has become far too jaded to accept the realities of this situation...

AZZenny · February 17th, 2008, 03:32 PM

WE are taking it seriously because one of the 2 most important known terrorists was just publically assassinated, which changes the dynamic from run of the mill 'chatter-based' warnings. Also because Hizbullah is massively well-organized, widespread, and financially endowed, as well as deeply into criminal enterprise (all thanks to Mugniyeh's connections and expertise), and under IM's hand, has excelled at high-profile terrorism, and they don't screw around.

I don't see how this situation has anything to do with left-right finger-pointing over generic terror alerts. The media never ID'd anyone but AQ as terrorist person of interest (and besides, many reporters will tell you they are more intimidated by Hizbullah) so they are completely tuned out. You're right, it also probably does have something to do with a tendency to believe our govt cries wolf all the time after 9/11.

Israel has gone to high alert, and warned Israelis and high-profile non-Israeli Jews worldwide to take exceptional care, and has also cautioned non-Israeli Jewish schools and community centers worldwide to increase security and minimize large public activities for the immediate future. Believe me -- they adjust local security levels pretty frequently in Israel but they don't publicize general threat alerts that often.

I think a good rule of thumb is that when they're really worried, it's worth paying attention. (Like they were in the months just prior to 9/11... but our gov't considered them 'alarmist.')

Quote:

US intelligence chief: Hizbullah, Syria may be behind Mugniyah killing

Mike McConnell says that some evidence suggests that internal Hizbullah groups or Syria assassinated commander in Damascus.
Associated Press Published: 02.17.08, 18:51

The US intelligence chief said Sunday that internal Hizbullah groups or Syria may be to blame for the killing of Hizbullah commander Imad Mugniyah, which has led the FBI to put domestic terror squads on alert in the United States.

Director of National Intelligence Mike McConnell said the United States is still reviewing the case following the death of the top Hizbullah commander in a car bombing in the Syrian capital of Damascus.

Hizbullah blamed Israel and has pledged to attack Jewish targets worldwide in retaliation. That led the FBI last week to be vigilant for possible threats in the US against synagogues and other potential Jewish targets.

'It is a serious threat' - McConnell said he considers the threat to be primarily against Israel. But he said US intelligence officials are keeping close watch and taking any necessary action to protect the United States because Mugniyah has been "responsible for more deaths of Americans and Israelis than any other terrorist with the exception of Osama bin Laden."