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Now the democratic pleas are down to the not yet discovered WMD.
I don't see how consumer confidence being flat shows we are anywhere on the road to a sustained economy. Economic recovery will entail growth over a number of quarters.
BTW - I guess I could parry with the fact that unemployment is still at a peak.
Originally posted by WaywardFan Anyone care to guess how much the stock market has gained since the tax cut was signed?
'Nuff said.
I am a hardcore capitalist just like you, but the fact is that the economy is terrible. You can not just borrow and spend forever. This might improve the economy for a short time, but it will come back and bite us in the ass.
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Tax cuts are the economic equivalent of crack. Gets you high for about 45 seconds, then you need to do it again.
Meanwhile, I hope no one in your family is a Medicare recipient, because the rolls are being slashed by as much as 80% in some states to accomodate the tax cut for the top 5% of wealth earners in the nation.
I'm not trying to start a class war but if you think dividend cuts and inheritance tax cuts help anyone outside of the 6-figure bracket, you're fooling yourself.
Originally posted by Ed B Tax cuts are the economic equivalent of crack. Gets you high for about 45 seconds, then you need to do it again.
Meanwhile, I hope no one in your family is a Medicare recipient, because the rolls are being slashed by as much as 80% in some states to accomodate the tax cut for the top 5% of wealth earners in the nation.
I'm not trying to start a class war but if you think dividend cuts and inheritance tax cuts help anyone outside of the 6-figure bracket, you're fooling yourself.
The estate taxes are only paid by 2% of deceased taxpayers.
Originally posted by Ed B
Meanwhile, I hope no one in your family is a Medicare recipient, because the rolls are being slashed by as much as 80% in some states to accomodate the tax cut for the top 5% of wealth earners in the nation.
Actually, you're misleading. States are cutting irresponsibly because they spent WAY too much when times were good and are cutting essentials and raising taxes because they don't want to cut their overall bloated budget.
Oh, and the tax cut will generate far more in additional income than it 'cost'. This is a truism of economics, proved by Reagan and Kennedy.
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Ah, but Reagan and Kennedy also proved that the trickle-down also does not trickle all the way down. Are you correct? Yes. A tax break gives the opportunity for a corporation, for example, to generate more income. Does that income trickle below the level of the stockholder? No.
Originally posted by sly fly How low will they go? Is this the bottom?
And, how long will this last? Is there one economic indicator that could begin a fast reversal of interest rates?
The market looks like it took the cut with a grain of salt.
This market we are in is unheard of.
Yes, we are probably at the bottom of rate cuts. They could maybe squeeze another 25 basis points but no more. Any more would cause just as many if not more problems (think Japan). The rate cut won't do a whole lot since most companies have already borrowed the money they need for expansion etc before the most recent cut. It may generate some more refinancing and further coporate borrowing but otherwise little will change in my estimation.
The market had already built in a 25 basis point cut before it was even done so that is why there wasn't some huge reaction to it. For the market, it was largely SSDD.
This market isn't all that bad in the grand scheme. The reason it seems that way is the quicksand the huge bull run was built upon. If not for a series of issues, this market may have already bounced back more but the 911, war on terror, war on Iraq, phantom earnings stuff continued to weigh heavily. The smart money has been dollar cost averaging their asses off into mutual funds this whole time so when the market does jump (and it will) your will be positioned extremely well. Then once it jumps, it will make investing into individual companies a bit easier again.
IMO, we have already seen the bottom (although not the bottom I predicted) in the market. It is still a huge stock pickers market and only hard strong research will get you to the right stuff. Not like the mid 90s where you could basically throw money at the market and know you would come out on top.
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