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WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Longtime Bush family friend James Baker plans to give President George W. Bush recommendations that may provide a way out of Iraq, but whether he will take up the offer is far from certain.
Baker, who was secretary of state for the president's father, heads the Iraq Study Group, a bipartisan commission that since March has been researching and preparing ideas for changing course in Iraq.
The plan will not be unveiled until weeks after the November 7 congressional elections, in which Bush's Republicans risk losing control of Congress largely because of deep popular concern over Iraq.
But one option being considered reportedly would call for a phased withdrawal of U.S. troops and another would urge Washington to open a dialogue with
Syria and Iran -- both rejected in the past by Bush.
Baker, who has a long history of trying to help the Bush family out of tight spots, has signaled that he believes a change in course is necessary.
"Everybody knows how close I am to the Bush family. But if our report is going to be worth anything, it has to be independent and it has to be our telling it like it is. And I'm here to tell you that's the way it's going to be, as far as I'm concerned," Baker told PBS' "Newshour."
Bush's strategy has been to support Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and hope he can overcome sectarian differences that many analysts believe have spiraled the country into a civil war. He wants to hand over responsibility for security to Iraqi forces but only after ensuring they can cope.
But given the growing chorus for a shift in strategy in the U.S. Congress, with hawkish Virginia Republican Sen. John Warner (news, bio, voting record) saying Iraq appears to be "drifting sideways," Bush is under strong pressure to consider changes. This has been bolstered by a new wave of U.S. deaths, including 10 American soldiers killed on Tuesday.
The Iraq Study Group includes Baker as chairman and former Democratic Rep. Lee Hamilton as co-chairman. Other members represent a mix of Washington important establishment figures from both parties.
INDEPENDENT REPORT
Hamilton told Reuters that no decisions have been made on what recommendations will be included in the group's final report, the writing of which is just now under way.
He emphasized the group's independence.
"We will write our own report. It will not be written in the White House or in the Congress, and it will not be submitted to somebody to amend or modify," he said.
"This will be the report of the 10 members of the Iraq Study Group. We are going to be do our best to reach a consensus but I can't make a guarantee...We will make foreign policy recommendations," he said.
An official familiar with the group's deliberations said the members are clearly headed toward recommending changes and not an endorsement of what many see as Bush's "stay the course" strategy.
"Bush's rhetoric is all stay the course and this one isn't going to be about stay the course. It's about fixing the course we're on," the official said.
But Baker warned against expecting a "magic bullet."
"It is very, very difficult," he told the World Affairs Council of Houston on Tuesday. "So anybody who thinks that somehow we're going to come up with something that is going to totally solve the problem is engaging in wishful thinking."
Bush has been reluctant to make a major change in course in Iraq, seeing the conflict as a central front in the war on terrorism and insisting that to withdraw prematurely would embolden America's enemies.
He expressed interest in seeing the recommendations at a news conference a week ago, when he also said it was important to remain flexible.
"Stay the course means keep doing what you're doing. My attitude is, don't do what you're doing if it's not working -- change," Bush said. "Stay the course also means don't leave before the job is done. We're going to get the job done in Iraq."
White House spokesman Tony Snow took a wait-and-see attitude about the Baker report. "This is something you listen to seriously, but we are not going to outsource the business of handling the war in Iraq," Snow said.
The report may force Bush to reconsider the entire U.S. mission in Iraq.
The New York Sun newspaper reported the commission was considering two option papers, "Stability First" and "Redeploy and Contain," both of which it said rule out any prospect of making Iraq a stable democracy in the near term.
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__________________
In politics, nothing happens by accident. If it happens, you can bet it was planned that way.
Franklin D. Roosevelt
"Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities." --Voltaire
Good article Wally. I've been hearing about this. GW has a lot of respect for Baker and I think he'd listen if Baker came up with a plan to get us out of there without just abandoning the Iraqis.
We should have already started to cut back on our troop levels. The Iraqis are not stepping up to the plate. We need to jolt them into action.
Good article Wally. I've been hearing about this. GW has a lot of respect for Baker and I think he'd listen if Baker came up with a plan to get us out of there without just abandoning the Iraqis.
We should have already started to cut back on our troop levels. The Iraqis are not stepping up to the plate. We need to jolt them into action.
I'm not so sure W respects Baker at all, and the PNAC's sure don't. So here's a prediction that makes me cringe--after Baker recommends "changing course" to some extent, the unofficial but highly publicized White House position will be that Baker's only trying to justify his own faulty recommendation in '91 that we leave Saddam in power else instability and chaos ensue.
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At what point then is the approach of danger to be expected? I answer, if it ever reach us, it must spring up amongst us. It cannot come from abroad. If destruction be our lot, we must ourselves be its author and finisher. As a nation of freemen, we must live through all time, or die by suicide.
Kissingn(azi)er is loving things just the way they are. He and McGeorge Bundy cooked this thing up way back when. They used to hook up and play a game called global domination.
__________________
In politics, nothing happens by accident. If it happens, you can bet it was planned that way.
Franklin D. Roosevelt
"Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities." --Voltaire
Hmmm interesting. Not sure who the Carlyle Group are but I assume they have loyalty to either the Bush' or the GOP. That being the case then why are some on this thread assuming that GWB will ignore their recommendations? Also are those same people suggesting that the recommendations will be fair and objective but that GWB will be simply too stubborn and or ignorant to follow them?
Let's see now...IIRC GWB was first against the 911 Commission headed by Hamilton and the former Repub. NJ govenor (Keane?) but then he relented after he got attacked by the liberal media for being stubborn and ignorant. He then would up adopting some if not all of their recommendations. So was he stubborn and ignorant then?
Hmmm interesting. Not sure who the Carlyle Group are but I assume they have loyalty to either the Bush' or the GOP. That being the case then why are some on this thread assuming that GWB will ignore their recommendations? Also are those same people suggesting that the recommendations will be fair and objective but that GWB will be simply too stubborn and or ignorant to follow them?
Let's see now...IIRC GWB was first against the 911 Commission headed by Hamilton and the former Repub. NJ govenor (Keane?) but then he relented after he got attacked by the liberal media for being stubborn and ignorant. He then would up adopting some if not all of their recommendations. So was he stubborn and ignorant then?
Carlyle Group ???? Might want to take note of the first 4 listed.
Quote:
Politicians affiliated with Carlyle
* James Baker III, former United States Secretary of State under George H. W. Bush, Staff member under Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush, Carlyle Senior Counselor, served in this capacity from 1993 to 2005.
* George H. W. Bush, former U.S. President, Senior Advisor to the Carlyle Asia Advisory Board from April 1998 to October 2003.
* George W. Bush, current U.S. President. Was appointed in 1990 to the Board of Directors of one of Carlyle's first acquisitions, an airline food business called Caterair, which Carlyle eventually sold at a loss. Bush left the board in 1992 to run for Governor of Texas.
* Frank C. Carlucci, former United States Secretary of Defense from 1987 to 1989; Also, former Princeton wrestling partner of present US Secretary of Defense, Donald Rumsfeld. Carlyle Chairman and Chairman Emeritus from 1989 to 2005.
* Richard Darman, former Director of the U.S. Office of Management and Budget under George H. W. Bush, Senior Advisor and Managing Director of The Carlyle Group from 1993 to the present
* William Kennard, Chairman of the U.S. Federal Communications Commission (FCC) under President Bill Clinton, Carlyle's Managing Director in the Telecommunications & Media Group from 2001 to the present.
* Arthur Levitt, Chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) under President Bill Clinton, Carlyle Senior Advisor from 2001 to the present
* Liu Hong-Ru,former chairman of China's Securities Regulatory Commission
* John Major, former British Prime Minister, Chairman, Carlyle Europe from 2002 until 2005
* Frank McKenna, Canadian ambassador to the United States and former member of Carlyle's Canadian advisory board
* Mack McLarty, White House Chief of Staff under President Bill Clinton, President of Kissinger McLarty Associates, Carlyle Senior Advisor from 2003 to the present
* Anand Panyarachun, former Prime Minister of Thailand(twice), former member of the Carlyle Asia Advisory Board until the board was disbanded in 2004
* Thaksin Shinawatra, deposed Prime Minister of Thailand, former member of board, who resigned on taking office in 2001
* Fidel Ramos, former president of the Philippines, Carlyle Asia Advisor Board Member until the board was disbanded in 2004
Business people affiliated with Carlyle
* Paul Desmarais, Chairman of the Power Corporation of Canada
* Arthur Levitt, former Chairman of the US Securities and Exchange Commission
* Karl Otto Pöhl, former President of the Bundesbank
* Luis Téllez Kuenzler, Mexican economist, former Secretary of Energy under the Zedillo administration
* George Soros, billionaire and political backer
* G. Allen Andreas, Chairman of the Archer Daniels Midland Company
__________________
In politics, nothing happens by accident. If it happens, you can bet it was planned that way.
Franklin D. Roosevelt
"Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities." --Voltaire
Carlyle Group ???? Might want to take note of the first 4 listed.
So what? There are Democrats on the Commission as well. I think they should be commended for being willing to look at the war in Iraq. Would you be happier if they stuck their collective heads in the sand?
So what? There are Democrats on the Commission as well. I think they should be commended for being willing to look at the war in Iraq. Would you be happier if they stuck their collective heads in the sand?
I don't think you have any idea who the Carlyle Group is or what they do.
__________________
In politics, nothing happens by accident. If it happens, you can bet it was planned that way.
Franklin D. Roosevelt
"Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities." --Voltaire
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