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Any real investors on this board then please chime in. I have been investing for 18 years and today I bought HEAVY. Part of it was due to the new rules governing short selling and the other part was the head and shoulder pattern on the Dow. My original estimates were 10000-10200, however the value of some of these companies were to hard to pass up. If anyone has other trading strategies or other stocks that show good value please present them.
NYX @ 36.50 NYSE Euronext
DRYS @ 46 Dryships
PCU @ 20.25 Southern Copper
NVDA @ 10.45 Nividia
GOOG @ 418 Google
V @ 60 Visa
EXM @ 21.25 Excel Maritime
ATI @ 36.50 Allegheny Technologies
I posted in this forum due to all the posts about AIG etc. I might even end up buying some AIG tomorrow
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I don't critique things in bizzaro worlds, who knows you could be a genius.
You could get wiped out.
I always like to invest when the world is financially on tilt, it's more fun than juggling grenades and chainsaws.
__________________
At what point then is the approach of danger to be expected? I answer, if it ever reach us, it must spring up amongst us. It cannot come from abroad. If destruction be our lot, we must ourselves be its author and finisher. As a nation of freemen, we must live through all time, or die by suicide.
I have been in DRYS & EXM before and I am currently in SFL & FRO. I like shippers and really like the dividends. Both of these stocks have just completed a head & shoulders pattern, however, both are still too far below the last broken support for my taste. While you have to wonder why EXM was red today, I could see it popping back to its old support of 26.14 fairly quickly if the stock were to catch some momentum. At a price of 20.53, I could see taking a a small position now and look to sell as it approaches resistance.
I have been in GOOG for years off and on and I am currently upside down in the trade, but I'm looking a little longer term on this one so I'm hanging on. I really like it at this price and think this is a good buy. I would look to sell at 511, but that's just me.
I'm down on commodities but that could change if the RTC thing happens. I wouldn't be in PCU right now. But it bears watching.
NVDA? Stocks that gap down 50% in a day scare me. Pass.
V? Not enough history, but I would guess that this is a safe pick that's not going to hurt you, but isn't going to double in price anytime soon either. Great stock for your retirement.
ATI & NYX? I don't see what attacted you to these two, unless you know something inside. The trend has been down for to long.
It dosen't matter what you do because in a few short years you won't be allowed to own anything anyhow.
To own something you must sell and selling is going to be against our national interest.
So the fatherland will just keep growing in control, for your own good of course and that's the end of our constitutional republic anyhow.
Just join the ruling politburo and be done with it.
Just say a toast to America, you served us well, we abused you, took you for granted and now you're lost, our fault, have a nice day.
I'd be long now too, nothing can fail, the government backs literally everything now, but that's not a free market that's something else entirely.
That's not just the market either, don't examine the power they wield too closely, that would ruin your fun.
__________________
At what point then is the approach of danger to be expected? I answer, if it ever reach us, it must spring up amongst us. It cannot come from abroad. If destruction be our lot, we must ourselves be its author and finisher. As a nation of freemen, we must live through all time, or die by suicide.
I have been in DRYS & EXM before and I am currently in SFL & FRO. I like shippers and really like the dividends. Both of these stocks have just completed a head & shoulders pattern, however, both are still too far below the last broken support for my taste. While you have to wonder why EXM was red today, I could see it popping back to its old support of 26.14 fairly quickly if the stock were to catch some momentum. At a price of 20.53, I could see taking a a small position now and look to sell as it approaches resistance.
I have been in GOOG for years off and on and I am currently upside down in the trade, but I'm looking a little longer term on this one so I'm hanging on. I really like it at this price and think this is a good buy. I would look to sell at 511, but that's just me.
I'm down on commodities but that could change if the RTC thing happens. I wouldn't be in PCU right now. But it bears watching.
NVDA? Stocks that gap down 50% in a day scare me. Pass.
V? Not enough history, but I would guess that this is a safe pick that's not going to hurt you, but isn't going to double in price anytime soon either. Great stock for your retirement.
ATI & NYX? I don't see what attacted you to these two, unless you know something inside. The trend has been down for to long.
Anyway, was this what you were looking for?
JTS
Definitely what I was looking for. I like both SFL and FRO
With EXM the dividend is to hard to pass up especially if I hold for a few years. It did already pop to 24 today so I am watching it closely. Also throw in a slowly rising BDI and a lock on 75% of there shipping rates for 3-4 years.
GOOG like you said should be solid. I actually bought this opening day and ended up selling at 150. Glad to be back in it at a lower price.
Visa is a nice stock, but you are correct about not being able to double for years. The market cap is still to high, but I could see this at 90-100 within 1-2 years. The main reason was I bought MA at 44 and held to 150 so there is still a lot of growth in both MA and V. I really like going for economic moat type companies.
NVDA I thought was more of a lower risk. It got taken down hard and they make a great product with a decent economic moat. I guess you could say that about every stock on the market in regards to getting taken out to the back of the woodshed though.
PCU does scare me do to copper demand so it will not be strong for a while. On the other hand PCU has a history of being a strong performer and with copper prices hitting 9 month lows and re-trenching to it's long term trend line it might not be so bad. Also the Dividend itself just might make it worth it.
On the NYX I see a economic moat and the Euronext is powerful trading platform. It is almost like buying a dualopoly for real cheap and the divy is nice. On ATI the EPS is what attracted me so much. 6.00+ on a 38$ stock is pretty cheap.
Thinking about buying some PUTS soon just to hedge, however the premiums on V and GOOG are to high so I might have to pass on those to.
Definitely what I was looking for. I like both SFL and FRO
With EXM the dividend is to hard to pass up especially if I hold for a few years. It did already pop to 24 today so I am watching it closely. Also throw in a slowly rising BDI and a lock on 75% of there shipping rates for 3-4 years.
GOOG like you said should be solid. I actually bought this opening day and ended up selling at 150. Glad to be back in it at a lower price.
Visa is a nice stock, but you are correct about not being able to double for years. The market cap is still to high, but I could see this at 90-100 within 1-2 years. The main reason was I bought MA at 44 and held to 150 so there is still a lot of growth in both MA and V. I really like going for economic moat type companies.
NVDA I thought was more of a lower risk. It got taken down hard and they make a great product with a decent economic moat. I guess you could say that about every stock on the market in regards to getting taken out to the back of the woodshed though.
PCU does scare me do to copper demand so it will not be strong for a while. On the other hand PCU has a history of being a strong performer and with copper prices hitting 9 month lows and re-trenching to it's long term trend line it might not be so bad. Also the Dividend itself just might make it worth it.
On the NYX I see a economic moat and the Euronext is powerful trading platform. It is almost like buying a dualopoly for real cheap and the divy is nice. On ATI the EPS is what attracted me so much. 6.00+ on a 38$ stock is pretty cheap.
Thinking about buying some PUTS soon just to hedge, however the premiums on V and GOOG are to high so I might have to pass on those to.
It appears we look at things somewhat similarly (which should terrify the heck out of you j/k)
I added your portfolio to one of my watch lists and might end up playing along with you. (Note to everyone else: make sure you do your own DD before you take any of this talk as gospel, there's always a chance that any one of these stocks could blow up in our faces, just ask Conrad )
I couldn't get in on my bid for EXM and will let the order expire. Too bad though, because it popped just as I thought it would. Of course most everything popped today, so this hardly makes me a genius.
Here's what I'm doing, for what it's worth.
I sold all my DUG two days ago because I thought that there might have been a chance that there would be a curb put on short trading. Even though it happened only to financials, there is a chance that it will soon extend to other sectors. This was a good move as it's dropped 6+ since that time.
My big mistake was selling my LVS at a loss, when it hit it's stop. I have made a boatload on this stock over the last 2 years, but this time it bit me. It's up 10+ since it sold on Tuesday.
UGY has been a great trade (thanks, swd!), but it sure looked scary this week. I sold today to lock in the profits and will look to buy next week when today's exuberance wears off.
Stocks I'm watching: DLLR (basically a pawnshop, but since it's lumped in as a financial, you get protected from the shorts and in a business that does well in harder economic times) Currently at 18.70 but spiked all the way up to almost 22 today. The closer it gets to 15, the better I like it. When you look at the chart, there is a lot of volatility in the price. This is a good one to catch a quick updraft and sell, rinse and repeat.
HANS is another one I don't like to hold on to for long but likes to bounce between 25 and 40 a lot. They are likely to be acquired by Coke someday, but until that happens, every time the rumors start to fly the stock moves up quickly (and then down again when it doesn't happen)
Looks good to me, but I don't really know that much.
I've bought twice. I bought Microsoft in 97 and after the split made a profit and I bought 10 ounces of gold when it was 400 bucks and I'm still sitting on that one.
So I don't have a lot of experience but the little I do has worked out great.
__________________ "I carry a gun because a cop is too heavy".
I added your portfolio to one of my watch lists and might end up playing along with you. (Note to everyone else: make sure you do your own DD before you take any of this talk as gospel, there's always a chance that any one of these stocks could blow up in our faces, just ask Conrad )
JTS
I definitely here what you are saying on one of these stocks blowing up. The best way I invest is through value and diversification. So if one does blow up at least there will be at least 7 others hopefully going strong. Also don't play if you do not expect to LOSE EVERYTHING.
On the stocks you listed
UGY is to scary right now. Gold fell from the trend line and when it finally did rise the parabolic trend was changed. So in essence when gold went up the stock went up, however that changed a little while ago and now gold goes up or sideways and the stocks get hurt bad. I would just be worried about gold up here even though there has been a lot of talk of Gold 1200-1500 recently. I could see this rising in the short term, however rather have FCX.
DLLR. Not a bad pick and it seems safe. Like the low float of 24 mil, however there is just not much growth with 3.2% this year. Like you I thought people might flock there more, but it does not seem the case.
HANS would rather own KO and play it safe. HANS relies to much on Monster energy drinks and the numbers are showing steady results, but the growth has slowed like everything else. With a market cap of 2.9 Bil it still seems like it is over-fairly valued.
Truth is you could be right, if the printing presses run your stock will do fantastic but you'll still lose due to inflation just not as much as grandpa in a money market.
A truly bold strategy would be options, leaps.
Swing for the fences.
None of the above is trading advice, my advice is to simply stand clear of the blast zone.
__________________
At what point then is the approach of danger to be expected? I answer, if it ever reach us, it must spring up amongst us. It cannot come from abroad. If destruction be our lot, we must ourselves be its author and finisher. As a nation of freemen, we must live through all time, or die by suicide.
Truth is you could be right, if the printing presses run your stock will do fantastic but you'll still lose due to inflation just not as much as grandpa in a money market.
A truly bold strategy would be options, leaps.
Swing for the fences.
None of the above is trading advice, my advice is to simply stand clear of the blast zone.
Conrad I already use leaps. Most of the time when I buy a ton of stock I like to sell covered CALLS and over the past 10 years I have been underwriting derivitives. Derivitives can get crazy though and compound the gains or losses very quickly.
I made a small fortune in PCU last year and may look to get back in. Still have the great divy?
NYX you seems to have picked the last bottom. Fortunate for you. Either Nasdaq is way over priced or NYX is underpriced because they are almost the same price per share and NYX makes a lot more money.
I like NVDA for a nice 5 year buy and hold.
I wouldnt touch V credit cards could be next.
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Goal for 2008: Half as many penalties.
I made a small fortune in PCU last year and may look to get back in. Still have the great divy?
NYX you seems to have picked the last bottom. Fortunate for you. Either Nasdaq is way over priced or NYX is underpriced because they are almost the same price per share and NYX makes a lot more money.
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