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sigh on still investing when this sucker is cratering ??? or just sigh the market is going under and the country is headed for BK ?
I think that it was, the water is over the smokestacks, and these guys are still discussing the deckchair arraignments.
This made me laugh because I picture Conrad as looking like Bill Murray, and that would be something Murray would say.
I don't particularly agree with him, however, because unless we are reverting back to the stone age, some kind of commerce is going to exist on the other side of this mess. And there are going to stocks that will rebound and there is going to be money to be made.
And if it doesn't, well I've got my guns, gold and a year or two's worth of dryed food to get me through the stone age.
JTS
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Last edited by jefftheshark; October 16th, 2008 at 01:06 PM.
I think that it was, the water is over the smokestacks, and these guys are still discussing the deckchair arraignments.
This made me laugh because I picture Conrad as looking like Bill Murphy, and that would be something Murphy would say.
I don't particularly agree with him, however, because unless we are reverting back to the stone age, some kind of commerce is going to exist on the other side of this mess. And there are going to stocks that will rebound and there is going to be money to be made.
And if it doesn't, well I've got my guns, gold and a year or two's worth of dryed food to get me through the stone age.
JTS
That's funny, and no I don't look like Bill Murray but that was still funny.
I honestly am at a loss for words.
All I would say is that if you guys want to be rich beyond rich then watch my posting under crash course.
Watch all 19 parts, get your thinking right then look at the world and the market again after watching it.
Commerce will not end no and there will eventually be a period of extrodinary inflation which will drive stocks to the moon, that may be a while so I wouldn't bet on it until you're in sync with the markets and until capitulation has everyone's bloody stumps lopped off.
This market isn't for the faint of heart or for people without iron stomachs.
Your thesis will be tested and shredded and thrown back in your face but there will be a lot of money at the end of the rainbow if you get it right.
Good luck all.
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At what point then is the approach of danger to be expected? I answer, if it ever reach us, it must spring up amongst us. It cannot come from abroad. If destruction be our lot, we must ourselves be its author and finisher. As a nation of freemen, we must live through all time, or die by suicide.
This morning is pretty nuts, DUG is up 20%, had I bought it at 42 last week I could have sold it at 77 this morning.
Yahoo Finance is completely whacked right now, they're using the Wed closing price for the Dow instead of yesterday so they're showing the Dow down nearly 1000 points (just before 7am PST) when it's actually down about 200.
Well I can't count the times I've missed out on some profit opportunity but I learned through hard knocks that it's not the winners you miss but the losers you miss that make you a better trader.
Short term it was a good call on oil, it's probably got some to go and I expect it then to muddle around a while then move the other way in a relentless dramatic fashion.
Watching the oil prices plummet you'd think we'd have solved the supply and demand issue and now it's all good.
Nothing could be further from the truth because we as a nation do not matter that much anymore, our percentage of the oil consumption growth is not that high.
Once the slack is taken up by the rest of the world and it will be then it's going to go the other way.
The dollar has a lot to do with this too, it's currently doing a rocket shot as people liquidate out of the markets but that just means money is getting awfully plentifull out there and when that happens then inflation comes next.
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At what point then is the approach of danger to be expected? I answer, if it ever reach us, it must spring up amongst us. It cannot come from abroad. If destruction be our lot, we must ourselves be its author and finisher. As a nation of freemen, we must live through all time, or die by suicide.
That's funny, and no I don't look like Bill Murray but that was still funny.
I honestly am at a loss for words.
All I would say is that if you guys want to be rich beyond rich then watch my posting under crash course.
Watch all 19 parts, get your thinking right then look at the world and the market again after watching it.
Commerce will not end no and there will eventually be a period of extrodinary inflation which will drive stocks to the moon, that may be a while so I wouldn't bet on it until you're in sync with the markets and until capitulation has everyone's bloody stumps lopped off.
This market isn't for the faint of heart or for people without iron stomachs.
Your thesis will be tested and shredded and thrown back in your face but there will be a lot of money at the end of the rainbow if you get it right.
Good luck all.
Well said/ If you are young to and can hold this is probably the best time I have ever seen to pick up quality companies on the cheap. From Boeing to Google there is so much value. Throughout my years of investing ( 16yrs) I have never seen so many companies trading under book value. Each year there might be 5-10, but there are 600+ right now. What that means is if you chunked the company up and sold everything you would get more value then the stock itself. Just crazy
Soon I will go all in and have about 25% cash left. Still down 12K for the year, however would have been a lot worse without shorting AIG to the ground.
Does anyone else think that was the bottom. With the 900+ day on the dow and the vix finally falling I think we just witnessed the bottom go by. If you by around here you will be rewarded big time !! Also bought some AAPL today as well and I am tapped out. The Calls bought on Friday have already doubled !
I repeat, George Bush needs to stop talking about the economy, everytime he does, people panic.
Logged in this morning, Dow was up nearly 300 points. Bush then gave a speech where he talked about putting money into the banks(250 billion) and the market promptly fell over 300 points in the next 30 minutes. It's back up now about 30 points.
For the last 3 weeks at least, everytime Bush publicly says anything about the economy, the market crashes, I think it's quite clear nobody trusts him on the economy.
I would expect the market to rally a while here past options expiration perhaps, perhaps longer, I'm not a guru about that and we were horribly oversold, but after that I would expect a Batan death march as reality starts to come back and the fact that all risk has been transfered to the government hits home.
The government has put it's credit rating on the line here, I hope people don't look too closely at it's balance sheet because once that last bastion of confidence goes, we're in a world of hurt.
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At what point then is the approach of danger to be expected? I answer, if it ever reach us, it must spring up amongst us. It cannot come from abroad. If destruction be our lot, we must ourselves be its author and finisher. As a nation of freemen, we must live through all time, or die by suicide.
I think that 7700 was the bottom, but I also think that we'll revisit it.
I like the financials because the Government has put a huge backstop behind them. While I agree with Conrad that if this fails, it could get very ugly, I think that this will re-install the confidence that is so badly needed.
The problem is that the Federal interventions so far have probably avoided a complete meltdown of the system (which is good), but now it's dawning on everyone that the economy is still in a very tough place. That's why I think we'll see one or two more re-testings of the recent lows, before we have a true rally.
The problem we face now is expressed by the TNX, or 10 year treasury bond.
It's getting killed on a daily basis and as it does mortgage rates are climbing and as they do house values are getting smacked around again.
We are in a loop of doom, a self re-enforcing negative feedback loop, rates go higher on the bonds, house values fall, the government backstops accrue negative valuations as they're taking on more and more risk, bond yields climb further, the economy tanks, more stress is placed on the government to sell bonds to make up the difference in tax revenue shortfalls, rates on bonds go higher still, mortgage demand drys up, house values fall more, more pressure on the government backstops.
TLT puts?
China so far has flipped us the bird, if that spreads we're simply toast.
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At what point then is the approach of danger to be expected? I answer, if it ever reach us, it must spring up amongst us. It cannot come from abroad. If destruction be our lot, we must ourselves be its author and finisher. As a nation of freemen, we must live through all time, or die by suicide.
Soon I will go all in and have about 25% cash left. Still down 12K for the year, however would have been a lot worse without shorting AIG to the ground.
OK question why buy a credit card company call in a credit crisis. Question 2 why buy calls in NDAQ? Are you saying NDAQ should be valued more than NYX Euronext? NYX fell below NDAQ. Either NYX is way way way oversold or NDAQ is overpriced. risky.
Question 3 why buy calls in DRYS when they went from charging 90k per load to 10k per load? That according to my calculations would make DRYS a 4 dollar stock if they are forced to take that low of a payment. China stopped importing by 85%.
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Goal for 2008: Half as many penalties.
Does anyone else think that was the bottom. With the 900+ day on the dow and the vix finally falling I think we just witnessed the bottom go by. If you by around here you will be rewarded big time !! Also bought some AAPL today as well and I am tapped out. The Calls bought on Friday have already doubled !
Not I. Bottoms are not make by rip your face off rallies. Thats a suckers rally. Bottom is 7100-7400 (just my guess). But we will certainly see 7700 again.
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Goal for 2008: Half as many penalties.
Speaking of DIG and DUG, both closed up slightly today. Proving Jeff's comments that they're no longer tied to oil prices since in theory it should never happen that both are up (or down) on the same day.
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