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Ive been playing with 800 bucks and buying SIX at 82 and selling in the 90's (cents) Better than CD's
I never touch a company under $5.00 it is just my rule.. On the portfolio it is looking decent in some areas and hurting in others. It could get really bad here, however this is when it is time to invest when everyone is fearfull.
What does everyone think about Wamu getting sold to JPM for 1.9 Billion. This has to be the biggest crime in the history of all crimes.
I never touch a company under $5.00 it is just my rule.. On the portfolio it is looking decent in some areas and hurting in others. It could get really bad here, however this is when it is time to invest when everyone is fearfull.
What does everyone think about Wamu getting sold to JPM for 1.9 Billion. This has to be the biggest crime in the history of all crimes.
I went to about 80% cash last Friday and sold into the rally, only keeping my SFL and GOOG, and those only because I'm so deep in the money that I'll ride it out.
I know the best time to buy is when everyone is fearful, but sometimes everyone has a good reason to be fearful. So I think I'm going to watch this from the sidelines. I will miss out on the big rally on Monday if the rescue bill is signed, but I also think that the rally will be short-lived. I might daytrade for a while and just make some momentum trades, but I don't plan on being long on anything for the foreseeable future.
I went to about 80% cash last Friday and sold into the rally, only keeping my SFL and GOOG, and those only because I'm so deep in the money that I'll ride it out.
I know the best time to buy is when everyone is fearful, but sometimes everyone has a good reason to be fearful. So I think I'm going to watch this from the sidelines. I will miss out on the big rally on Monday if the rescue bill is signed, but I also think that the rally will be short-lived. I might daytrade for a while and just make some momentum trades, but I don't plan on being long on anything for the foreseeable future.
What's your plan?
JTS
I am like you. I don't want to jump in to hard, but I do want to start building base positions. The value on some of these stocks is just getting to hard to pass up. Like I said I LOVE getting good value and there is a lot everywhere right now with some stocks trading sub 7-8 PE's with +20% sustained growth + cash positions. I think I can ride out this storm better then anyone, because of my positions are low, still young, and any money I throw into I always go in with the mindset that I could lose everything. My system also has stringent rules and they include heavy diversification ( 8-14 stocks divided by 5-8 sectors ). Then absolutely no emotion in trading good or bad. When I pull the trigger the ultimate factors boil down to charts, fundamentals, dividends, growth ( which is hard to get a accurate guage right now ), earnings, and like to overall throw the VIX on top just to compare. Once I make my value play I only change my mind if the fundamentals have changed or I experience a price decline greater then 20%.
Still sitting in 30% cash and will go all in if Dow hits 10000 with absolutely no emotion. At 10000 the DOW will have completed a head and shoulders pattern and should place it in a prime spot for some good bargain hunting. 10 years from now we will look back at this time and wished we bought more. If not then the country has probably gone to hell and in that case save a spot for me in the soup line.
On the issue of day trading. Unfortunately I am just not good or bad. Every time I day trade it comes with to much emotion and feels like a Casino. Whenever I throw money down it is usually longer and every time I go quick in or out my emotions get the best of me. Taking emotion out of the equation is the only way to invest. Also if you noticed my portfolio is low on PUTS or shorting right now, however I did catch KBH and CFC for a nice chunk on the way down. Also I am a strong supporter of shorting the airlines to the ground as well and have been since 1994.
The shippers got kicked to the curb yesterday, didn't they? China is fighting with Brazil over iron ore shipments and Cardinal fans half a world away get their noses bloodied. Strange world, huh?
But this is another sign of the what the world is going to look like if the credit crunch doesn't get resolved soon. There are ships sitting in ports all over the world that will not move because the sender is unsure that the receiver will be able to pay for it. This will certainly lower shipping rates in the short term, and these stocks will certainly pay the price.
Long term, though, there will be fewer ships on the ocean, as some of the shipbuilders fail, so there's good value in the future. The problem is that this good future could be ten years away.
As for me, if the Congress acts over the weekend/Monday (and I'm betting that they do) I might own EXM for several hours on Monday, but I can't imagine owning it overnight. I think this stock will see it's strong support of 11.28 before it sees a return to 42.
I would definitely be cautions of the shippers here, because like you said they went from bust to boom quick. The support level on EXM from history is around 8 on the bottom of May 06 and the pop on July 04. If you look at the slope coming from the base it was so long ago so most likely all support areas have already been taken out.
On the other hand the book value alone just based on the ships should be at least 25 a share minus there debt. I am also surprised the 1.60 dividend is not holding this up better.
I could see a pop to 26-28 before I see 11. It seems right now that all the weak hand are out and everybody that was going to sell probably already has. According to resistance below on my charts a push to that 28 level might not be as far fetched.
+18.4% at 19.4 ± 1.47, type single, strength 3
+37.2% at 22.49 ± 1.71, type single, strength 8
+73.9% at 28.5 ± 2.17, type triple+, strength 9
+102% at 33.18 ± 2.52, type triple+, strength 8
+121% at 36.24 ± 2.75, type single, strength 1
+144% at 40.03 ± 3.04, type double, strength 10
+170% at 44.21 ± 3.36, type single, strength 5
+200% at 49.17 ± 3.74, type double, strength 8
+233% at 54.52 ± 4.14, type single, strength 8
With times like these though I guess anything is possible. Check out some Bull and Bear confirmations
BULLISH
Probability - 1 Day Price change extreme down, may pause/reverse
Probability - Oversold, odds favor long trades.
Probability - Short term strong pullback, pullback may start to slow.
Confirmation - Extreme 3 day distribution, but when the stock is oversold this is considered bullish.
Confirmation - Extreme bearish 1 day moneyflow, on an strong-extreme pullback is considered bullish.
Probability - Strong Down trend (1 month), may start to turn sideways.
BEARISH
Probability - Intermediate trend bearish, Downtrend.
Confirmation - CONFIRMED breakdown below 17.93, no support in area just below.
I always like flowing with the trend, however I changed my tune when the value looks so good. I have never seen so many companies trading under book in all of my life. Some of them even 1/2 book with a chunk of cash.
If you buy on Monday post the purchase price JS .. Personally I like the Dec 20 Calls at $220 a contract, but that is just me.
I would definitely be cautions of the shippers here, because like you said they went from bust to boom quick. The support level on EXM from history is around 8 on the bottom of May 06 and the pop on July 04. If you look at the slope coming from the base it was so long ago so most likely all support areas have already been taken out.
On the other hand the book value alone just based on the ships should be at least 25 a share minus there debt. I am also surprised the 1.60 dividend is not holding this up better.
I could see a pop to 26-28 before I see 11. It seems right now that all the weak hand are out and everybody that was going to sell probably already has. According to resistance below on my charts a push to that 28 level might not be as far fetched.
+18.4% at 19.4 ± 1.47, type single, strength 3
+37.2% at 22.49 ± 1.71, type single, strength 8
+73.9% at 28.5 ± 2.17, type triple+, strength 9
+102% at 33.18 ± 2.52, type triple+, strength 8
+121% at 36.24 ± 2.75, type single, strength 1
+144% at 40.03 ± 3.04, type double, strength 10
+170% at 44.21 ± 3.36, type single, strength 5
+200% at 49.17 ± 3.74, type double, strength 8
+233% at 54.52 ± 4.14, type single, strength 8
With times like these though I guess anything is possible. Check out some Bull and Bear confirmations
BULLISH
Probability - 1 Day Price change extreme down, may pause/reverse
Probability - Oversold, odds favor long trades.
Probability - Short term strong pullback, pullback may start to slow.
Confirmation - Extreme 3 day distribution, but when the stock is oversold this is considered bullish.
Confirmation - Extreme bearish 1 day moneyflow, on an strong-extreme pullback is considered bullish.
Probability - Strong Down trend (1 month), may start to turn sideways.
BEARISH
Probability - Intermediate trend bearish, Downtrend.
Confirmation - CONFIRMED breakdown below 17.93, no support in area just below.
I always like flowing with the trend, however I changed my tune when the value looks so good. I have never seen so many companies trading under book in all of my life. Some of them even 1/2 book with a chunk of cash.
If you buy on Monday post the purchase price JS .. Personally I like the Dec 20 Calls at $220 a contract, but that is just me.
Is anyone still left alive?
Well, we saw EXM go to 11 before before 26, but who knew that we would be throwing both technicals and fundamentals out the window and run with just pure fear as a market indicator?
Anyway, I did buy EXM @ 15.49, (ouch!) but I just bought more @ 11.26 to average it down to 13.37. Now we just need that $26 pop we were looking for.
I have been looking at DDR+H, and while I've owned this stock before I haven't invested in the preferred issues. What are your thoughts? It's paying a 17% yield, which for a REIT is almost as good as 2nd trust deeds, but a hell of lot more liquid.
Well, we saw EXM go to 11 before before 26, but who knew that we would be throwing both technicals and fundamentals out the window and run with just pure fear as a market indicator?
Anyway, I did buy EXM @ 15.49, (ouch!) but I just bought more @ 11.26 to average it down to 13.37. Now we just need that $26 pop we were looking for.
I have been looking at DDR+H, and while I've owned this stock before I haven't invested in the preferred issues. What are your thoughts? It's paying a 17% yield, which for a REIT is almost as good as 2nd trust deeds, but a hell of lot more liquid.
JTS
Boy am I kicking myself. I was playing with fake money on DIG and DUG that you and SWD talked about and had convinced myself last week I was confident I could handle it, so I was going to buy in $2000 at 42 for DUG. But I was so concerned about the bailout and OPEC fixing prices I didn't do it.
DUG closed just under 65 up 20% today, I could have made 50% profit in 4 days(assuming I held through today).
Bush has officially cemented his legacy as the worst president in 50+ years when it comes to the economy, market not only went under 9000, it went WAY under it and fast. It fell 500 points in the last hour of trading.
Boy am I kicking myself. I was playing with fake money on DIG and DUG that you and SWD talked about and had convinced myself last week I was confident I could handle it, so I was going to buy in $2000 at 42 for DUG. But I was so concerned about the bailout and OPEC fixing prices I didn't do it.
DUG closed just under 65 up 20% today, I could have made 50% profit in 4 days(assuming I held through today).
Bush has officially cemented his legacy as the worst president in 50+ years when it comes to the economy, market not only went under 9000, it went WAY under it and fast. It fell 500 points in the last hour of trading.
I'm kicking myself on DUG right now too, as I sold at $52 thinking the run was close to its end. I bet swd is feeling our pain too (unless he was smart enough to jump back in).
I guess this market still has some surprises for us.
My bid on the DDR+H, that I set so low that I thought it would expire without a buy, executed at the end of the day. So I guess I better do some research on preferred equities, since I am now the proud owner of a bunch of them.
TC, did you bail on your positions, or did you take a bath on them?
Wow just can not believe what is going on in the market. It is truly scary to be at 8500 on the Dow so quick. If the capitulation in the market does not end soon then there will be major repercussions. I am going to throw down about $5000 on some LEAPS soon including DRYS at 19
__________________
At what point then is the approach of danger to be expected? I answer, if it ever reach us, it must spring up amongst us. It cannot come from abroad. If destruction be our lot, we must ourselves be its author and finisher. As a nation of freemen, we must live through all time, or die by suicide.
Wow just can not believe what is going on in the market. It is truly scary to be at 8500 on the Dow so quick. If the capitulation in the market does not end soon then there will be major repercussions. I am going to throw down about $5000 on some LEAPS soon including DRYS at 19
Also what I meant with serious repercussions was a new war.
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