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Old December 12th, 2003, 06:07 AM   #1
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About 2004 elections...


http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/031211/nyth120_1.html



2004 Will Be the U.S.'S Best Year Economically in Last 20 Years, The Conference Board Reports in a Revised Forecast
Thursday December 11, 11:01 am ET

NEW YORK, Dec. 11 /PRNewswire/ -- Revising its year-end economic forecast sharply upward, The Conference Board today projected that real GDP growth will hit 5.7% next year, making 2004 the best year economically in the last 20 years.
The forecast, by Conference Board Chief Economist Gail Fosler, expects worker productivity, which set a 20-year record in the third quarter, to rise at a healthy 3.6% next year. That would follow a gain of 4.3% this year.

The economic forecast is prepared for more than 2,500 corporate members of The Conference Board's global business network, based in 66 nations.

KEY BAROMETERS FLASHING GROWTH

"Growing business spending and continued strength in consumer spending are generating growth throughout the U.S. economy," says Fosler. "This burgeoning strength is reflected in The Conference Board's widely-watched Leading Economic Indicators, the Consumer Confidence Index and the Help-Wanted Advertising Index. While the labor market, a critical factor in sustaining growth, is growing slowly, a pick-up in hiring may already have begun."

Real consumer spending, which continues to fuel growth, will increase at a 4.7% pace next year, up from about 3.2% this year. Another gain of 4.3% is projected for 2005.

While the U.S. economy is expected to generate more than one million new jobs next year, the unemployment rate will edge down only slightly, averaging 5.6% in 2004.

The Conference Board forecast notes that as the U.S. economy bounces back, so is Europe, although growth will be subdued compared to most other major parts of the world. "For all the concern about a weak dollar," says Fosler, "the dollar will be worth more than the euro by the end of the year."

Real capital spending, which will rise by only 2.7% this year, will climb 11.7% next year and another 8.6% in 2005. Pre-tax corporate operating profits will top $1 trillion next year, up from a projected $928 billion this year. Another trillion-dollar-plus gain in profits is expected in 2005.

The continued recovery in business profits, which was a key ingredient in funding new investment (crucial in making 2004 a strong growth year), depends on price relief. Business profits will benefit from both improved volume and recovering profit margins in 2004, as inflation creeps back toward 3% by the end of the year.

Source: Revised Conference Board Economic Forecast
December 2003




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Old December 13th, 2003, 08:54 AM   #2
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BUMP!
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Old December 13th, 2003, 09:44 AM   #3
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I'll give Bush credit, when you give Clinton credit for the best decade of economic growth this country has ever seen.

(Even though I give credit to neither as it is).
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Old December 13th, 2003, 01:39 PM   #4
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I will only be impressed if the year ends with them being right. If I had a nickel for every economic forecast and business growth forecast that was wrong, I would own the world.
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Old December 13th, 2003, 01:56 PM   #5
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Quote:
Originally posted by Krangthebrain
I'll give Bush credit, when you give Clinton credit for the best decade of economic growth this country has ever seen.

(Even though I give credit to neither as it is).
Yup tend to agree. My dog could have been president during the internet boom and point at charts showing economic growth.
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Old December 13th, 2003, 02:08 PM   #6
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Yup tend to agree. My dog could have been president during the internet boom and point at charts showing economic growth.
The market in a way, runs itself.

I mean, Bush couldn't control the free fall of the dot.com stocks, but I also doubt that his tax cuts have helped us that much.

Buyer/investor expectations are huge as well, and can't be forgotten. After the market plunged, people were hesitant to jump right back in. Now that some time has past, and expectations are higher, people are more likely to invest.

Interest rates, IMO, are the biggest. If you've been waiting to buy a car, everyone knows that it's better to buy when interest rates are low (duh!).

Interest rates are dependant on the federal government. When the economy is booming, the fed restricts money supply, which increases the interest rate. But when times are rough, the fed increases the money supply to lower interest rates.

Of course, it isn't felt right away, and can take years to feel the effects of lower interest rates, but it does come, and IMO that's what we are feeling now (buyers are willing to spend more on big ticket times due to lower interest rates).
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“Somewhere a True Believer is training to kill you. He is training with minimum food or water, in austere conditions, day and night. The only thing clean on him is his weapon. He doesn’t worry about what workout to do—his rucksack weighs what it weighs, and he runs until the enemy stops chasing him. The True Believer doesn’t care ‘how hard it is’; he knows he either wins or he dies. He doesn’t go home at 1700; he is home. He knows only the ‘Cause.’ Now, who wants to quit?”

NCOIC of the Special Forces Assessment and Selection Course in a welcome speech to new SF candidates

On life after football: "I wouldn't mind being a sports commentator. Having my own segment, working for ESPN, my own talk show. Part time trainer. Part time car mechanic. Part time Sprint cell phone salesman. Part time car washman. Grocery store baggage man. Football coach. Model. Actress. Stripper. And I even have dreams of being the next crocodile hunter." - Darnell Dockett

Last edited by Krangthebrain; December 13th, 2003 at 02:12 PM.
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Old December 13th, 2003, 02:21 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally posted by Krangthebrain
If you've been waiting to buy a car, everyone knows that it's better to buy when interest rates are low (duh!).
Actually, if you're waiting to buy a car/truck...save some money up and pay for it. Then the interest rate doesn't matter. You own it without payments.

I've never had a car/truck payment.
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Old December 13th, 2003, 02:41 PM   #8
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Quote:
Originally posted by Krangthebrain
The market in a way, runs itself.

I mean, Bush couldn't control the free fall of the dot.com stocks, but I also doubt that his tax cuts have helped us that much.

Buyer/investor expectations are huge as well, and can't be forgotten. After the market plunged, people were hesitant to jump right back in. Now that some time has past, and expectations are higher, people are more likely to invest.

Interest rates, IMO, are the biggest. If you've been waiting to buy a car, everyone knows that it's better to buy when interest rates are low (duh!).

Interest rates are dependant on the federal government. When the economy is booming, the fed restricts money supply, which increases the interest rate. But when times are rough, the fed increases the money supply to lower interest rates.

Of course, it isn't felt right away, and can take years to feel the effects of lower interest rates, but it does come, and IMO that's what we are feeling now (buyers are willing to spend more on big ticket times due to lower interest rates).
Interest rates have nowhere to go realistically but up from here. I mean, the Fed could go lower but not a whole lot.

About the markets, those folks who were hesitant to plunge back in were late for the turnaround. In normal, yet largely unsuccessful fashion, people bailed out well off the highs and got back in nowhere near the lows. The smart money took this time to do a few things:

1. Analyze their investments to determine if they were in fact good ones and not blind followers investments.

2. Dollar cost average in even as the bottom was falling out. This has ben the the prime time to dollar cost average.

3. Diversify investments...including real estate and bonds.

The market, long term, is still a great investment. Greenspan has done a pretty darn good job managing interest rates.

But Brian has said it best. On a personal level, management of debts is the one factor anyone can do to better themselves and their families.
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Old December 13th, 2003, 02:57 PM   #9
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Quote:
Originally posted by AZCB34
Interest rates have nowhere to go realistically but up from here. I mean, the Fed could go lower but not a whole lot.

About the markets, those folks who were hesitant to plunge back in were late for the turnaround. In normal, yet largely unsuccessful fashion, people bailed out well off the highs and got back in nowhere near the lows. The smart money took this time to do a few things:

1. Analyze their investments to determine if they were in fact good ones and not blind followers investments.

2. Dollar cost average in even as the bottom was falling out. This has ben the the prime time to dollar cost average.

3. Diversify investments...including real estate and bonds.

The market, long term, is still a great investment. Greenspan has done a pretty darn good job managing interest rates.

But Brian has said it best. On a personal level, management of debts is the one factor anyone can do to better themselves and their families.
Of course the interest rates have nowhere to go but up, because we lowered them so low (what twelve times once the economy go real bad).

My dad has literally lost about $400,000 past few years; when the market crashed and then when Putnam crashed due to after hour trading.

I swear....with Putnam, he lost about $120,000 and of course, no one was arrested. If it isn't criminal, it should be. The SEC needs to get tougher on white collar criminals.
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“Somewhere a True Believer is training to kill you. He is training with minimum food or water, in austere conditions, day and night. The only thing clean on him is his weapon. He doesn’t worry about what workout to do—his rucksack weighs what it weighs, and he runs until the enemy stops chasing him. The True Believer doesn’t care ‘how hard it is’; he knows he either wins or he dies. He doesn’t go home at 1700; he is home. He knows only the ‘Cause.’ Now, who wants to quit?”

NCOIC of the Special Forces Assessment and Selection Course in a welcome speech to new SF candidates

On life after football: "I wouldn't mind being a sports commentator. Having my own segment, working for ESPN, my own talk show. Part time trainer. Part time car mechanic. Part time Sprint cell phone salesman. Part time car washman. Grocery store baggage man. Football coach. Model. Actress. Stripper. And I even have dreams of being the next crocodile hunter." - Darnell Dockett
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Old December 13th, 2003, 02:59 PM   #10
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Quote:
Originally posted by Brian in Mesa
Actually, if you're waiting to buy a car/truck...save some money up and pay for it. Then the interest rate doesn't matter. You own it without payments.

I've never had a car/truck payment.
Well of course!

I won't have the luxury when I'm done with school. My dad paid for my car that I drive right now, put it on his credit card, and paid it off the next day.

My family NEVER finances anything. Coming from a farmer family in the south, we've learned that debts weigh you down.
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“Somewhere a True Believer is training to kill you. He is training with minimum food or water, in austere conditions, day and night. The only thing clean on him is his weapon. He doesn’t worry about what workout to do—his rucksack weighs what it weighs, and he runs until the enemy stops chasing him. The True Believer doesn’t care ‘how hard it is’; he knows he either wins or he dies. He doesn’t go home at 1700; he is home. He knows only the ‘Cause.’ Now, who wants to quit?”

NCOIC of the Special Forces Assessment and Selection Course in a welcome speech to new SF candidates

On life after football: "I wouldn't mind being a sports commentator. Having my own segment, working for ESPN, my own talk show. Part time trainer. Part time car mechanic. Part time Sprint cell phone salesman. Part time car washman. Grocery store baggage man. Football coach. Model. Actress. Stripper. And I even have dreams of being the next crocodile hunter." - Darnell Dockett
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