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Engel's Beat: Over and under Aug. 27, 2003
By Scott Engel
Commissioner.COM Managing Editor


Full of in-depth Fantasy Football analysis and strategy, Engel's Beat returns for its fifth season. Throughout the preseason, regular season and Fantasy playoffs, Scott Engel provides expert insight and answers your Fantasy Football questions.

In every draft, there are some inevitable surprises. It's not inconceivable to see a defense taken as early as the fifth round, or to see Matt Hasselbeck picked before Brett Favre, who he used to back up. Some owners simply tend to overrate players, while not placing enough emphasis on others. Here's our updated list of the players who tend to get too much or too little attention on Draft Day. Our "overvalued" players might still have good seasons, but you shouldn't take them too early. Our "undervalued" players can be great bargain picks.

Overvalued
Troy Brown has great open-field moves, but he caught just three touchdown passes last year and has never caught more than six in a season. David Patten is a more frequent end zone target for Tom Brady.

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Correll Buckhalter has good vision and should have some solid performances, but the fact is he still missed the 2002 season with a major knee injury. Buckhalter has shown some hesitance to plant firmly when making his cuts, and he doesn't appear quite ready for a big year.

Javon Walker still has a lot to learn. He doesn't come off the line with great confidence, and he's still prone to dropping passes. Walker, who must also work on his route-running skills, might finally have a breakthrough season in 2004.

Matt Hasselbeck has yet to prove he can play under pressure. Hasselbeck had his best games when the Seahawks were clearly out of the race last year. He's looked good during the preseason, yet he has always performed well during exhibition play.


Troy Brown is an overrated Fantasy player.(Getty Images)
Tampa Bay defense's is certainly the best unit available. We wouldn't take a defense in the fifth or sixth round, though. Still, some owner inevitably does, while others who wait until the later rounds can still take respectable units like the Giants or Falcons.

Josh Reed is about to lose his starting job to Bobby Shaw. Like Walker, Reed needs more seasoning. He will be a nice third receiver for the Bills, but he's not ready to be a consistent Fantasy contributor.

Amos Zereoue has yet to prove he can handle the chores of being a feature back. Jerome Bettis isn't quite finished yet, and will continue to push Zereoue for playing time.

Reggie Wayne has yet to show he can be a consistent playmaker, and Marvin Harrison will get the ball constantly even if he gets extra defensive attention. Wayne doesn't get open consistently and doesn't project as a quality Fantasy starter yet.

Besides defenses, some kickers are inevitability drafted too early. David Akers is often selected in the eighth or ninth round. While he is certainly a top kicker, defenses and kickers should be chosen among your final selections.

Undervalued
Drew Bledsoe is not going to miss Peerless Price as much as some experts think he well. Bledsoe will still get good pass protection, and he has a rare knack for making any receiver look good when he has time to throw.

Tom Brady threw 28 touchdown passes last year, yet many owners still won't draft him as a Fantasy starter. Brady is a super pick when he slips to the sixth or seventh round in many drafts.

Keenan McCardell isn't flashy or exciting. Yet he always seems to drop to the final rounds of drafts, where he becomes a great late pick. McCardell makes the important catches in traffic and in the red zone.

Garrison Hearst isn't ready to fade away yet. He remains San Francisco's starting running back, and will still break some big plays. Hearst won't just hand over his job to Kevan Barlow this season.

Shannon Sharpe has caught only five touchdown passes during the past two seasons, and he's 35 years old. Among tight ends, though, he still ranks as one of the best playmakers available. Sharpe will drop to the late rounds in some drafts, where he's a terrific bargain.

Steve McNair, like Brady, doesn't strike many owners as a Fantasy starter. McNair, though, is one of the original run/pass quarterbacks, and he will seemingly play through any injury. McNair is often a much better downfield passer than most people think he is.

Sure, Isaac Bruce isn't an elite Fantasy wideout anymore. He still plays on a very productive offensive unit, though, and will still score frequently. Bruce is a super No. 2 Fantasy receiver.

Marcel Shipp is ranked low on many cheat sheets. But as we have said many times before in this space, he will quickly wrest the starting running back job away from Emmitt Smith.

Jay Fiedler might disappoint Dolphin fans during the playoffs, yet he is a smart, tough passer who isn't afraid to run the ball when necessary. Fiedler can post above-average Fantasy numbers when the matchup is favorable.


Beat Mailbag
John Lytwak, Pittsburgh: What is up with Seattle and the continued promises of offensive greatness each year? I can't tell how many times I picked Seahawks over the years and have been continually disappointed. Every year they are picked for turning it around. Is it just me, or is this team always frustrating Fantasy owners?

S.E.: Shaun Alexander's inconsistency certainly frustrated many owners last year, especially when he started slowly. Matt Hasselbeck has yet to play well for an extended stretch of time, and Koren Robinson must build on the promise he displayed last year. Darrell Jackson was also inconsistent last year. The key for Seattle this season will be Hasselbeck. If he plays well early, he'll earn the respect of opposing defenses, and will prevent defenses from stacking their fronts against Alexander, as they did early last season. Hasselbeck is still a risky pick, but he has a lot of upside. Alexander, at worst, will remain explosive and inconsistent. Robinson and Jackson should continue to perform well, because they will post good numbers even if the Seahawks have to play catch-up in a lot of games.