Trump's Election and the Markets

Discussion in 'Finance, Investments, and Careers' started by crisper57, Nov 9, 2016.

  1. Russ Smith

    Russ Smith The Original Whizzinator Contributor

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    Wow I don't know what was worse, 3.5 hours waiting in the DMV for my girlfriend to renew her drivers license, or spending 3.5 hours watching the stock market tank on my phone. Today was my biggest one day loss ever, overall market was bad and one of my stocks fell 30%(total overreaction to mixed guidance). It's almost all in my IRA's so it's not money I'm going to use now but still sucks to watch.

    It'll come back eventually, the worst part is i I nearly sold that one stock 3 weeks ago when it got me back to even plus 5%, but I decided not to.
     
  2. AsUpRoDiGy

    AsUpRoDiGy Magnanimous

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    That's always rough to see. When my positions are down I try to stop looking and go work out or something to keep my mind off of it. As long as you do your DD and focus on fundamentals...you will almost always be fine. Be patient and you will be rewarded!
     
  3. Russ Smith

    Russ Smith The Original Whizzinator Contributor

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    yeah I've completely changed my investment plans over the years I used to try and time the market, get in and out etc. People here several times pointed that out to me.

    Sounds funny but I finally talked to someone at work who told me the same thing and showed me stats on getting in and out and how you almost always miss the big up days doing that. I paid for a one year Motley Fool Stock Advisor, bought a bunch of stocks they recommended that have for the most part done well(until the last 2 weeks) and it has completely changed my philosophy. They very much preach the buy and hold long term plan and that's the way I'm going now.

    Every now and then I'll sell a stock I don't like anymore but nothing like what I used to do.

    Today went much better although we closed off the lows and my terrible stock from yesterday(IRBT) went down another 3% today. But i'm still holding it I think it's a major overreaction they still dominate their market and I'm holding them
     
  4. AsUpRoDiGy

    AsUpRoDiGy Magnanimous

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    IRBT fell off a cliff, but that definitely seems more like emotional sentiment over people seeing red than anything else. Earnings look good, and RSI indicates it's way oversold. Charts don't look great on it, as they dipped below the 50 and 200 DMA, but that's from people freaking out it looks like. If their 2018 Q1 reports indicate they're headed towards the billion revenue mark...it'll rebound back up into the 80's. If you have the opportunity you can wait for it to bottom out and lower your avg position...might be worthwhile if you plan on holding it for a bit.
     
  5. Russ Smith

    Russ Smith The Original Whizzinator Contributor

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    I nearly sold it 2-3 weeks ago. The reason was funnily enough our nephew was looking at robotic vacuums at home on Amazon and started naming interesting ones and he said "the Roombas cost too much." I started to wonder how many people make that same decision. But i convinced myself not to sell, I was down about 5% on the stock then, over 30 down now obviously. I could average down on it but I've also got a fair amount of the stock already, and I'm not entirely sure it's at the bottom, they had good earnings, and even the guidance was pretty good. If you follow the company they always guide very conservatively.

    The last hit was when some short analyst wrote a thesis that Shark and some other lower priced models were going to take tons of market share. Stock tanked. Then reality set in , 2 of those companies settled suits with IRBT agreeing to stop selling because they were infringing patents, a couple of others have some performance issues, and the stock went back up. I am for now feeling the same thing will happen. Plus the company is branching out it's in pool cleaners, gutter cleaning and some other stuff and they're doing digital mapping because they use wifi that I suspect might make them an interesting takeover candidate in the future when someone decides how to utilize all that information on wifi in your house, where the dead spots are etc.

    Way down right now but I think longer term they're still the industry leader.
     
  6. AsUpRoDiGy

    AsUpRoDiGy Magnanimous

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    If you already have a fairly large position, then pretty tough to allocate more, unless you have a lot of faith in its potential. I certainly wouldn't buy it right now...the chart indicates it might break its 52 week low of 52.12, which would then be a great buying opportunity. I haven't checked the short report on it, but if there were large short positions on it...then you know the drop was manipulated. Not often you see a stock drop that much with better than expected earnings, so it's bound to make an upward correction.
     
  7. Covert Rain

    Covert Rain Father smelt of elderberries!

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    I simply never sell. In it for the long haul. My uncle and father in law have done SOOOOO well in the market. I just do what they tell me to do. Just kidding. I do ask advice but basically they said the same thing. I am young enough to be so jumpy in the market.
     
  8. Russ Smith

    Russ Smith The Original Whizzinator Contributor

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    In general buy good stocks and hold is the right approach. I sold Amazon recently because it was so high and hadn't split I started to think the stock price is holding it back from going higher. There's lots of research that indicates when stocks get up over a certain price it can actually limit it going higher because people have this mental thing they don't want to buy 5 shares at 1500 a share they want to buy 75 shares at 100 a share even though the dollar amount is the same. So far it's up a bit since I sold it but my basic idea is if it gets back into the 1000 range, I'd buy it again. Ironically right after I sold it and was regretting it out comes Warren Buffet saying he wishes he could buy more Amazon but he missed the chance at just under 1000 and might not get another chance. he's not talking about them doing a split to get the price back down he's just saying he thinks it was a steal at 1000 and isn't at 1500.

    Generally speaking not selling is the way to go, you can't time the markets so you sell to avoid big down days but miss the big up days too. With individual stocks it's a bit easier but still not so much.

    One of the stocks that got hit much the way Irobot did, was Shopify. I had it, I was up about 40% and there was a short report that called it essentially a fraud, I didn't believe the report, but I was concerned other people might, so I waited a bit and then sold. So I made 40% and it's now almost triple what I bought it at. Doh!
     
  9. AZCB34

    AZCB34 Registered User

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    What price did you sell Amazon at?

    Splits are largely a psychological exercise and little more.
     
  10. Russ Smith

    Russ Smith The Original Whizzinator Contributor

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    About 1500. I bought at 580, obviously it's now pushing 1600 so I could have made more but I think a drop is inevitable, if not for the whole market.

    There's some evidence that says many people simply won't buy a stock that's got a price that high, even if as I said 5 shares at 1500 is the same 2500 shares at 3 dollars, some people just see a price that high and think no way. There's this line of study that says people tend to buy stocks in certain amounts, 100 shares being the most common, and thus over a certain price people don't want to buy that stock because times 100 it's too high. It makes no sense, but there's a lot of evidence that people think that way.I was also somewhat swayed by Buffett's comments he thinks he waited too long and missed the boat on buying Amazon for Berkshire Hathaway. And I have to admit the lack of a dividend.

    It's a great stock, if it keeps going up obviously I'll kick myself but I had been considering selling since it crossed 1350 so I held on for quite awhile.
     
  11. Russ Smith

    Russ Smith The Original Whizzinator Contributor

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    Everything plunging today, DOW, Nasdaq and S&P all way down.

    The one thing Trump had to hang his hat on was the stock market and now he's managing to kill that too.
     
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  12. Dback Jon

    Dback Jon Killer Snail Contributor

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    Dow loses 3% today, below 24K
     
  13. iLLmatiC

    iLLmatiC 2016 Cardinals season in a nutshell

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    Time to buy. I'm looking at MO, PG, XOM, and O.
     
  14. Russ Smith

    Russ Smith The Original Whizzinator Contributor

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    Ordinarily I'd agree time to buy but there's a triple whammy going on right now. Trump's stupid tariffs, the Facebook stuff with Cambridge Analytica, and now McMaster being replaced with a loony who wants wars.
     
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  15. iLLmatiC

    iLLmatiC 2016 Cardinals season in a nutshell

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    Buy all the way down. I love stuff on sale.
     

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