Trump's Election and the Markets

Discussion in 'Finance, Investments, and Careers' started by crisper57, Nov 9, 2016.

  1. Beaver

    Beaver Maximum Effort

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    How much higher are interest rates expected to go? I have been following because we are having a house built and can't lock in our rate until probably March/April.
     
  2. 82CardsGrad

    82CardsGrad 7 x 70

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    Most "experts" didn't think we'd be at these levels so soon... The general consensus was that we "might" be a 3% on the 10 Year by the end of the year... Well, we're at 2.85% today and rising fast!
     
  3. Dback Jon

    Dback Jon Killer Snail Contributor

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    They should go up at least a full percentage by end of year.
     
  4. 82CardsGrad

    82CardsGrad 7 x 70

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    Wouldn't be surprised if we're looking at a 4 handle on the 10 Year come the end of 2018!
     
  5. Russ Smith

    Russ Smith The Original Whizzinator Contributor

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    yeah the other thing I could have done is buy SDOW or today DXD which is 2 times short and was up 8.92%. Of course again you're still trying to time the market even if you just use it as a hedge. DXD is up about 14% in the last 2 days but who knew that well enough to buy it on Thur?

    I certainly didn't.
     
  6. BillsCarnage

    BillsCarnage Registered

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    Yeah, it's crazy the effect the machines can have on the market nowadays; which is why I don't think people should panic.
     
  7. Russ Smith

    Russ Smith The Original Whizzinator Contributor

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    So early futures were up across the board until the Asian markets opened and tanked. now futures are down about 500 for DOW, was 700. Pretty volatile day tomorrow again I guess.

    Oddly the orange dictator is not talking up the market now, I'm fascinated to see how he blames the Dems, Obama, and HRC for this, I'm sure he'll find a way.

    In my stock heavy IRAs I was down just over 3% today, which considering the overall markets is about 1.25% LESS of a drop than if I was just in indexes.

    A friend of my girlfriends nephew was telling him on the phone today he lost over 100K in paper value in crypto currency overnight. He's still ahead so it's "house money" but he was about to panic sell. The nephew was talking to me and I had to say in all honesty I can't give you a piece of valuable advice, NOBODY knows how cryptos are going to trade in crashes. With the overall market generally speaking you just hang on and eventually it will go back up, might be weeks, might be years but it will eventually go back up. Nobody knows if that's the case with Crypto or not which is why I've been too scared to get into it.
     
  8. AsUpRoDiGy

    AsUpRoDiGy Magnanimous

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    China just announced that they might ban all cryptos, which resulted in a mass sell-off. BTC is down below 7k and keeps falling. Would take some miraculously good news for the crypto market to rebound where it once was, and even tough to say where the bottom might be, as bad news just comes out daily about cryptos. Seems the bubble has burst.
     
  9. CardsFan88

    CardsFan88 Registered

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    Here's what happened guys.

    XIV blew up. (technically it didn't blow up, it was designed to have a cut off point, which it breached.)

    This is what was driving the market for YEARS. This is what I was warning about, the short vol trade (among other risks). Hundreds of billions in shorting volatility.

    Whenever the market would go down, someone would short VIX and magically the market would ramp. That's what people have been taking credit for... Obama and Trump. Now we'll see people who don't understand being partisan in the media and nothing will get done.

    One thing is for sure, Trump was an idiot for attaching himself to the bubble he inherited instead of sticking to his CORRECT speeches talking about it being a bubble and supporting Glass-Steagall.



    People have been making money shorting the VIX, using for instance XIV for years. One guy quit his job and took his savings to 12 million doing this.

    http://www.businessinsider.com/form...llionaire-using-short-volatility-trade-2017-8

    It's a inverse derivative, created and largest owned by Credit Suisse. You know one of those on the ropes and technically insolvent European TBTF's. Whoops.

    Oh, who owns 2nd most? (granted 1/10th of CS) another on the ropes and technically insolvent European TBTF Deutsch Stank. Whoops.


    [​IMG]






    So you have a ton of people who just lost tons. People posting stuff around. CS and DB have been hit hard. Of course people like this might have to sell everything nailed down to stay afloat.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]


    We don't even know if anyone has shadow derivative bets on these products or somehow involving these products.


    Then you have a situation where if this is gone, the upside pressure on equities created by shorting vol won't be there.



    This was AFTER the market closed by the way. So lots of forced selling tomorrow. Idiot Jim Cramer, who knew NOTHING, I mean NOTHING about this XIV, has been taken aback by this all.








    No Jim. They're trading just fine. This is how our markets are SET UP. To allow THIS. This is market structure. Earth to Jim.





    Still shilling





    https://twitter.com/jimcramer/status/960640117382828032

    No Jim... it is NATURAL pressure when the market is set up like this. Up is down. Down is up. Black is white. White is black.



    https://twitter.com/jimcramer/status/960672294904451072

    ROFL

    https://twitter.com/jimcramer/status/960700453691580416

    Still shilling

    https://twitter.com/jimcramer/status/960702071484928000


    Then not

    https://twitter.com/jimcramer/status/960708953066889216

    https://twitter.com/jimcramer/status/960721111200739328




    This is why Glass-Steagall needs to be put in.

    Clinton repealed it. Bush inherited that crash and rode it till it crashed. Obama inherited that crash and continued those policies and created the biggest bubble in history. Trump inherited this.... and the rest is yet to be played.

    Hopefully unlike Clinton, Bush, and Obama... Trump does the right thing. Glass-Steagall.

    The previous presidents all pumped this up with their policies and actions. That was THEIR actions in past tense. Their legacy of not addressing the broken system except with money printing. Trump, like them, will be defined for his actions one way or another... if this happens.


    We've had three bubbles in a row. This one is the biggest. We're the most in debt. The most destitute. The infrastructure and boomers are 10 years older. So on and so forth.

    That said, the markets are so screwed up tomorrow it wouldn't surprise me if they are +5%.

    Or this could be it.
     
    Last edited: Feb 5, 2018
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  10. Mainstreet

    Mainstreet Registered User Contributor

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    Unfortunately, inflation here we come.
     
  11. Russ Smith

    Russ Smith The Original Whizzinator Contributor

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    yeah I wanted to tell the nephew to sell his too but that's his decision. I told him that's precisely why I don't buy them, it's more gambling than trading you should IMO only do it with money you can afford to lose.

    He's playing with house money too but I'm afraid he is too confident that he truly understands bitcoin, I'm not convinced anybody really does. All I said is if it were me I'd take my profits and get out, but that was why I never bought any, way too volatile/
     
  12. CardsFan88

    CardsFan88 Registered

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    Of course the HFT's love these sorts of scenarios and predictably went to town during this. Another market structure issue allowed to evolve.

    Also the crypto currency carnage can't be helping matters either.

    Asian markets and Dow futures not doing well

    https://www.investing.com/indices/us-30-futures

    Dow futures as of now

    23,088.0 -850.0 -3.55%

    NIKKEI 21184.58

    -1497.50 -6.60%
     
  13. BillsCarnage

    BillsCarnage Registered

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    Futures are down 1200 now. :eek:
     
  14. CardsFan88

    CardsFan88 Registered

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    FUTURES
    Index Close
    Cur Future Change
    24345.75 23095.0

    -843.00 FUTURES FAIR VALUE (377.75)
    Fair Val Close
    Cur Future Change
    24315.75 23095.0

    -1220.75

    [​IMG]
     
  15. BillsCarnage

    BillsCarnage Registered

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    And Angelo Mozilo made out like a bandit
     
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