Trading up in the Draft for a QB

Discussion in 'Arizona Cardinals' started by GimmedaBall, Feb 14, 2018.

  1. GimmedaBall

    GimmedaBall Registered

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    Comments and evaluations from around the league in regards to trading up in the draft to obtain a quarterback. Quick summary: Does not look promising.

    http://www.nj.com/jets/index.ssf/2018/01/does_trading_up_for_a_quarterback_in_the_nfl_draft.html

    Great breakdown of some recent deals and how the QBOTF turned out:
    https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/...und-quarterback-is-generally-a-terrible-idea/

    Result summary from 2005 to 2017:
    http://www.footballperspective.com/teams-traded-up-for-a-1st-round-qb-16-times-from-2005-to-2017/

    Buffalo Bill fan column on moving up in the draft:
    https://www.buffalorumblings.com/20...-nfl-history-trading-up-franchise-quarterback

    Article from 2016 that is critical of the Eagles and Rams moving up for Wentz and Goff. Author is now probably sorry that stuff posted on the Net doesn’t just disappear:
    https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2016/4/21/11446886/rams-nfl-draft-rumors-carson-wentz-jared-goff

    Summary chart from http://www.phillyvoice.com/review-10-teams-who-traded-quarterbacks-last-10-years/

    Additional source courtesy DevonCardsfan on 2/15:
    http://www.sharpfootballanalysis.co...re-miserable-at-executing-the-draft-pick-swap


    upload_2018-2-14_14-16-32.png

    upload_2018-2-14_14-17-23.png

    upload_2018-2-14_14-18-39.png
     
    Last edited: Feb 15, 2018
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  2. GimmedaBall

    GimmedaBall Registered

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    Sorry for the multiple posting of the chart. Durn new fangled computer things.
     
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  3. Solar7

    Solar7 Optimist

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    This is a great thread. It summarizes a lot of the data I've been pulling in to make my argument against "the big move" for a QB. We have so many teams ahead of us that aren't just going to let franchise quarterbacks get away for anything but a bounty, and it's been shown that it doesn't work at all.

    There's only 32 NFL franchises, they're all professionals at the top of their game. To think we can just outsmart them all is an interesting viewpoint.
     
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  4. unseenaz

    unseenaz Registered

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    i'd trade up for mayfield, no one else. rosen is a nut, i could see darnold working out, but he needs a few years of developing it looks like
     
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  5. AsUpRoDiGy

    AsUpRoDiGy Magnanimous

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    Trading up to 9 or 10th from 15 really wouldn't be a major risk to get your QB. I'm against trading into the top 5, but anything after that is fair game, imo.
     
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  6. football karma

    football karma formerly known as En Fuego

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    this is my POV

    some things have to break the Cards way, AND, they will have to pay a price

    the things:

    1. Browns go Darnold
    2. Giants go Rosen, or better, Saquon Barkley
    3. Jets or Broncos sign Cousins
    4. of the team that misses out on Cousins, they fall in love with Josh Allen,or, if Giants go Barkley, they take Rosen

    1 -4 happnening gets Mayfield to #7, with four teams on the clock that dont need a QB.

    Going from #15 to #7 is a do-able trade ( im guessing, 2nd in 2018+, or, a 2019 1st). Of the teams in between the Cards and #7 -- Dolphins and Bengals might take a QB, but im not sure they want one so bad as to give up lots to get to #7 ( noted: KC last year fit that description, and we know what happened).
     
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  7. AZCrazy

    AZCrazy Registered

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    We'll see what they can pull off in free agency. Otherwise we have no choice but to trade up. Our QB's are gone.
     
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  8. GimmedaBall

    GimmedaBall Registered

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    Would really like to get a peek at SK's draft board and to hear the discussions going on around the QBs in this draft.

    I can see the Cards sitting at #15 if they have 6 or 7 QBs bunched together in terms of value with the idea that at least one will drop to us. On the other hand, if the guy the Cards really want is within moving up a few picks I can see them making the trade up (before someone like Elway did with Lynch, the Texans with Watson, Reid with Mahomes leapfrogs us for the QB.)

    In the past, SK sticks to his board. If we don't get that vet FA to fill the roster spot it is going to be real interesting to see how SK responds---it is not longer just BPA but a whole lot position of need.
     
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  9. Cardiac

    Cardiac Registered User

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    Interesting info in the OP but my question is what is the failure percentage vs trading up or simply having a high draft slot. I already know that if you don't draft a QB in the top 5 slots in rd 1 then your odds of winning a SB are significantly lower. If you don't pick a QB in rd 1 then your odds go way down.

    There is a very high failure rate for drafting QB's and I don't know that it changes much if you trade up to get one.
     
  10. Jetstream Green

    Jetstream Green Registered User

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    We do not have to outsmart them all, just the ones up front who are there because their front office is not too bright... yes, I think we can easily move up a few and get our guy if he is there, geeez
     
  11. BillsCarnage

    BillsCarnage Registered

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    Yeah, the more I look at it, I tend to agree. There's no clear #1 QB so the risk of spending current and future picks probably aren't worth it. But, who knows.

    Don't forget the Browns have the #4 pick too. The #3 (Indy) and #4 (Browns) could be serious trade bait for a team wanting to move up for a QB.
     
  12. GimmedaBall

    GimmedaBall Registered

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    Partial answer to your query here:

    http://www.drafthistory.com/index.php/superbowl_quarterbacks/

    Scroll down the page to the chart. It lists the winning and losing QB and when they were taken in the draft. To complete your answer, would have to go back and determine if their team traded up for them or took them in their 'earned' slot.

    Winning Super Bowl quarterbacks have been drafted in the first round 55.3 percent of the time (29.8 percent with the first overall pick). Of the 45 quarterbacks taken in the traditional NFL draft, the average selection spot is 54.9.

    http://www.nfl.com/superbowlchamps/quarterbacks

    Our man KW and Steve Young were QBs not taken via the traditional draft.

    Here's a review of QBs taken in either the 1st or 2nd round between 2004 and 2016. Some of the trade info you seek is embedded in the descriptions of the QB bio:

    https://www.newsday.com/sports/football/nfl-draft-how-these-52-qbs-have-done-1.2829033
     
  13. bg7brd

    bg7brd Registered

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    If we're not the "leapfroggers" we're going to be the "leapfrogees".
     
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  14. GimmedaBall

    GimmedaBall Registered

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    Did BA tell you to post that? LOL
     
  15. Cardiac

    Cardiac Registered User

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    Thanks for the links, I'll get to them sooner than later. I'm not a mathematician but does each of Brady's and Montana's wins count or is that % based on just the QB's names. My point is that Brady and Montana would skew those %'s heavily. They would also impact the 54.9 draft slot number.

    I did some research over ten years ago so the numbers have changed some but QB's playing in the SB were taken in the 1st rd and it was by a large margin. I forget who recently (past year) posted numbers showing that if you draft a QB outside of the top 5 in the draft then your chances of getting to the SB are very poor.

    Bottom line for me is if SK & Company like a QB enough to trade up and get them then I'm all for it. I didn't want us to do that the last couple of years but I fell it's time to do so if the right guy is there.
     
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