TJ Warren now

Discussion in 'Phoenix Suns' started by JCSunsfan, Nov 13, 2017.

  1. devilalum

    devilalum Salary Cap Casualty

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    Also I would bet my house that at least 5 of this coming drafts lotto picks will never be as good as TJ Warren.


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  2. devilalum

    devilalum Salary Cap Casualty

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    Doesn’t too 50 roughly equate to top 10 at your position?


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  3. hcsilla

    hcsilla Registered User

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    Yes, and at least 5 of this coming lottery picks might become much better than Warren.

    That's the beauty of high draft picks vs. established players.
     
  4. BC867

    BC867 Long time Phoenician! Contributor

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    I think that reflects the point of view of each poster. And their priorities.

    My own point of view about Warren is that he is now one of two NBA calibre scorers on the Suns. That reflects how poorly the roster is stocked. Until that changes, Warren is extremely valuable in taking some of the pressure off Booker on offense. Or stepping up when Book is out.

    On a balanced team, a playoff calibre team, Warren would hardly be the second most (and only other) valuable player on that team.

    If that is not a reflection of the incompetence of the owner and GM, I don't know what is. It is certainly not the formula for building and fielding a winner.

    They try three lead Point Guards competing with each other to be the alpha dog. Then they switch it to three Centers. Our players are either over the hill or teenagers (slight exaggeration).

    I'll say it again. Balance is not a priority on the Suns ... and has hardly ever been. Balance is a key to building and maintaining success. Not just in one or two examples, but across the team. Our two best players are Wings.

    When Cotton said, "We need a Charles Barkley" (to balance the front court/back court) and then we went out and got him, he understood. Throughout most of the Suns 50 seasons, the rest of management hasn't.
     
  5. 3rdside

    3rdside Registered

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    A percentile is any 1% in 100%, not the top 1% although to be accurate I should have said percentiles, with an 's'. 'Upper' doesn't = 'Top', I don't think.


    There's 301 players in the NBA; the 50th ranked player by PER is in the top 17% of players.

    The 41st ranked player is in the top 14% of players.

    I'd think Warren, when considering his contract (so PER x Contract Value x Contract Length Remaining), would easily be in the top 10% (or 30 players, or decile to carry on the theme) and possibly / probably the top 5%.


    Which then raises the question - do the terms of a contract even matter when considering the value of a player as there's no way anyone would say Warren is in the top 5% of players in the league outright?

    Maybe not, but that isn't exactly the point - the argument started over whether Warren was a top 7 SF in the league, which is uncertain, but if you consider his contract there's an argument that he is.

    And to elaborate further, if you were to construct a roster from scratch you'd need to consider a salary cap, in which case Warren is one of the first players you'd pick period, let alone first SF's.
     
  6. 3rdside

    3rdside Registered

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    CPN's right - he's worth 7-10 in this draft (i'd go 7-9 personally but that's getting a little picky) but in the Bender / Chriss draft he's probably top 5 even without the benefit of hindsight as everyone knew that draft sucked.
     
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  7. elindholm

    elindholm rehabilitated

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    This is a nice, precise claim. I don't happen to agree with it, but the language is very clear.

    I won't go through the exercise, but I would think it would be fairly easy to come up with 30 players who are more valuable than Warren by that metric. 30 is only one per team on average, and even the Suns, who are not very good, have Booker. So I would estimate that the average number of players per team who are more valuable than Warren is greater than 1.

    Maybe an easier question is: How many teams in the league have no players that are more valuable than Warren?
     
  8. JCSunsfan

    JCSunsfan Registered User

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    Nerd fight!!!!!!
     
  9. 3rdside

    3rdside Registered

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    For my claim to hold you’d probably have to ignore rookies - which isn’t ideal - as their small contracts would have a distorting effect.

    But if I was allowed to do that, then I’d be surprised if he wasn’t in that top 30, or somewhere close to it.


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  10. elindholm

    elindholm rehabilitated

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    I take it "Open my mind to richer ways of thinking" was not one of your New Year's resolutions. Oh well, there's always hope for 2019.
     
  11. SirStefan32

    SirStefan32 Krycek, Alex Krycek

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    This is a fascinating discussion! I think that contracts have to be a part of the equation, but it would be interesting to look at it both ways, with and without considering the contract. Another added complexity is figuring out the fit with the team. Covington, for example, would be ideal for a team like Cleveland. Warren might fit better with a team like San Antonio or Golden State, though those teams have better options at their positions. Figuring out a formula for that is impossible, though.
     
  12. 3rdside

    3rdside Registered

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    I’ll take that as a compliment


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  13. Raze

    Raze Registered

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    Yep. Because there's no formula to art. And that's what being a GM or a coach is about, art. In art, there are hundreds of different colors to choose from and millions of combos to try.

    But a good artist knows what colors to combine and how to lay them out so that it's a thing of beauty.
    And a good art critic knows good art when they see it.
     
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  14. JCSunsfan

    JCSunsfan Registered User

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    It’s just a hilarious conversation! Can you imagine the Suns players reading this? They would crack up.

    Listen, I get it. Family full of engineers here and then there is my brother in law. We both have PhD’s in the same academic area. So you should see the family eye rolls at the Thanksgiving table conversation between us.

    I have a hunch we are all more nerds than athletes here and we spend hours a week posting on Suns board. ESPN should really tap into this market—nerds talking sports. It would be so much more interesting to watch to guys argue about which players are better based upon various mathematical formulas than the Stephen A Smith stuff we are being fed.

    Carry on. Enjoy the discussion.
     
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  15. JCSunsfan

    JCSunsfan Registered User

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    But this is SPORTS! It’s not about art, it’s about WINNING! yYou have to have a score of some kind.
     

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