Discussion in 'Phoenix Suns' started by Mainstreet, Jan 29, 2018.
I'm not saying that they do. What part do you have a problem with?
But that is not what he is saying. The aggregate doesn't change the individual outcome, but he is talking about the aggregate outcome.
I still want to know about if there’s cheese in the maze...
Somebody moved it, I think. I don't know who.
Goddamnit! Beef need it’s cheese!
It doesn't matter what chance of getting a top3 pick the Sixers had, what does matter is which top3 pick the Sixers got, so this is where the starting point is wrong.
And the approch is wrong too, IMO, since you can't really describe with probabilites what was expected and what has happened and how much one did differ from the other.
Expected value is much more suitable to describe this.
Given the lottery chances the expected value of the pick that #1 seed will get is 2,642 which means that the average outcome is closest to #3.
#1 = 2,642
#2 = 2,979
#3 = 3,407
#4 = 4,721
In 2014 (as a #2 seed) instead of 2,979 they got #3, which is basically the expected outcome.
In 2015 (as a #3 seed) instead of 3,407 they got #3, which is a bit lucky.
In 2016 (as a #1 seed) instead of 2,642 they got #1, which is lucky.
In 2017 (as a #4 seed) instead of 4,721 they got #5, which is a bit unlucky, almost as unlucky as lucky they were in 2015, so they even out each other.
Summarized, they got what was expected in 3 years and got lucky in 2016.
All in all, you can call that bit lucky or slightly lucky, but not lucky IMO, and definitely not very lucky.
And the probability of (basically expected)*(a bit lucky)*(lucky) is what?
You tell me.
But don't forget to include 2017 as well when the Sixers got a bit unlucky.
I already told you. It's low.
Minimally. Also, don't forget that the value of picks decreases faster than linearly. The gap between #2 and #3 is greater than the gap between #3 and #4. So moving up is a bigger deal than moving down -- which is reinforced by the numbers I gave you.
A beginning computer programmer could easily set up a simulation. Put in the Sixers' lottery seeds for those four years and run 10,000 trials to see their expected distribution of picks. I guarantee we'd find that they did much better than the average would predict.
Hows the math argument going?
Less well than you might think.
Short period? We're going on eight years.
The Managing General Partner's expertise is as a small city banker. His priority is about MAKING MONEY.
If he did his job and lead his co-owners in that responsibility, fine. But he chose to use his position to then feed his ego and make himself an active member of the Front Office, without any skills or experience.
It is not about "any team content with remaining bad." It is about the egomaniac at the top. From there, it all flows downhill. Sadly, it has all flowed downhill.
I view Robert Server the same as the NBA viewed Donald Serling with the Clippers. The details are not the same, but the results are. Our team is a laughingstock which has taken only baby steps forward since the embarrassment at the start of the season. I, as a Suns fan, have no respect for that kind of leadership.
Until he leaves, I don't see us as even reaching the middle of NBA respectability. Unfortunately, it could very well lead to the Suns being bought out and moving to Seattle. How would Arizonans feel then?
Here’s the thing BC... I don’t think Ouchie and I disagree with you about Sarver AT ALL.
Which is prob why we think Salvation can only come from hardcore tanking where we give ourselves the best chance to get lucky enough in the lottery that we can get great players to change the team’s fortunes.
As much as we wish different, Sarver ain’t going anywhere... great FA ain’t coming here because of that and thus the ONLY way we probably get out of this hole is... luck.
Does that make sense to you?
Yes, this exactly. I never even THOUGHT about tanking, much less claymores for it, during Jerry’s reign because I believed he wanted to, and would effectively pursue actions to, win. I don’t see Sarver as having colangelo’s hoops acumen or respect in the L hence the need to look elsewhere (aka the luck of the draft) to provide us our desires salvation.
Ouchie and Cheese, you're right. But, except for Booker and Warren, the whole team needs to be remade. Unless we can attract some mid-career veterans to go with the young guys as they develop, it could take five to ten years. I just find it so hard to accept "Wishing & Hoping" and losing indefinitely.
How I wish the other owners of the Suns would strip Sarver of his title of Managing General Partner. He has only 30% of the vote. The sooner that happens, the sooner they stop stabbing in the dark and changing philosophies every few years.
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