Should the Suns keep Ryan McDonough as GM

Discussion in 'Phoenix Suns' started by Mainstreet, Jan 29, 2018.

  1. elindholm

    elindholm rehabilitated

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    If you were to make a substantial bet on winning four coin flips in a row, you'd have to win a 50-50 chance each of four straight times. The probability of success is 1/16. That's very lucky. It isn't relevant that each individual coin flip is an even chance. What's hard is winning several in a row.

    Maybe the hang-up is on the word "lucky." We can put it a different way. If another team should have happened to be the #2, #3, and #1 lottery seeds in those years, they would have been 14 times as likely to get worse picks than to do as well as the Sixers did. Call it good luck or bad luck, but it's a mathematical fact.
     
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  2. cheesebeef

    cheesebeef Registered User Contributor

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    good gravy it sucks that we've all been having the same discussion for ALMOST A DECADE because we have nothing else to really talk about with this team.
     
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  3. Ouchie-Z-Clown

    Ouchie-Z-Clown I'm better than Mulli!

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    The reality is there’s no perfect system. Free market would just exponentially increase the chasm between haves and have nots. A Yankees or dodgers in the nba would be disastrous.
     
  4. Ouchie-Z-Clown

    Ouchie-Z-Clown I'm better than Mulli!

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    I don’t think that’s mathematically accurate. Each coin flip is independent of the other. Once you’ve flipped heads three times in a row you still have a 50% chance of flipping heads on the last flip.
     
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  5. Chaplin

    Chaplin Better off silent

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    Maybe that’s the problem.
     
  6. Mainstreet

    Mainstreet Registered User Contributor

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    I do not watch the Suns to see them lose. When I watch the Suns I'm interested in watching the younger players.

    If the Suns traded Chandler, Dudley or Monroe and brought G-League players all the better.

    I'm all into the Suns future, not the now especially at this point.
     
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  7. JCSunsfan

    JCSunsfan Registered User

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    He just explained it. He is right. Its not about the individual selections, it is the set as a whole.
     
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  8. elindholm

    elindholm rehabilitated

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    We aren't disagreeing.

    Let's try this one more way. You are trapped in a maze. To get out, you will encounter four blind choice points, one after the other. At each choice point, one path leads to safety, and the other leads you to an assassin who will murder you instantly. What is your probability of getting out of the maze?
     
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  9. cheesebeef

    cheesebeef Registered User Contributor

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    Is there cheese in this maze?
     
  10. pokerface

    pokerface Registered

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    Or maybe there wasn't such a problem. Fans of bad teams need hope and something to root for and be entertained. The draft provides that.

    Plus if the league is dead set against lousy teams benefiting and want some mythical purity they should make the draft completly random or have teams take turns with picks.

    But I wont hijack the thread with this dead horse so im done.
     
  11. Ouchie-Z-Clown

    Ouchie-Z-Clown I'm better than Mulli!

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    I’m running this by our CIO tomorrow. He’s a math wiz. The aggregate doesn’t change the odds for each individually coming true.
     
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  12. BC867

    BC867 Long time Phoenician! Contributor

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    Ouchie and Cheese, I think it is more a case of, having been out of the post-season for seven years going on eight, fans find it difficult to embrace a plan based on losing.

    Tanking is hoping. We're hoping that, miraculously, the Suns ownership and Front Office can show us skills in building a winner instead of hoping. Sadly, I wouldn't bet the ranch on it.
     
  13. Ouchie-Z-Clown

    Ouchie-Z-Clown I'm better than Mulli!

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    Yeah I understand that. But just missing the playoffs isn’t tanking. And folks keep saying we’ve been tanking for a long time. The basic truth is that tanking has only occurred for only a part of a single season. The other seasons we’ve just stunk.
     
  14. Chaplin

    Chaplin Better off silent

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    But if bad teams are actually punished for being bad, maybe they wouldn’t be content with remaining bad.
     
  15. Ouchie-Z-Clown

    Ouchie-Z-Clown I'm better than Mulli!

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    I don’t think any team is “content with remaining bad.” I think they may tolerate being bad for a short period to acquire talent, but not “content with remaining bad.”
     

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