Discussion in 'Arizona Cardinals' started by az jam, Jan 2, 2018.
Did you call change my quote? Wth?
I think I accidentally deleted the wrong name from there, it was supposed to be @oaken1. Total mistake, sorry! I was working and must have lost track of what I was quoting.
All good my man.
At the current salary, Tyrann Mathieu would be paid the 5th highest salary for defensive backs (that means cornerbacks and safeties) in the NFL.
Is Tyrann Mathieu the 5th best defensive back in the NFL? Is he even the 50th?
On a board where Patrick Peterson and Chandler Jones' salaries are questioned on almost a weekly basis, Mathieu is safe from that type of scrutiny ?
That is a hard argument for me to entertain.
Thanks - I just realized what happened, I had a draft in here from one of your posts last night and when I hit quote, just defaulted to thinking you were the poster. I use another Xenforo board and it doesn't just quote the individual, but the whole post, so I normally have to go back and delete the first parts of the chain. I was on autopilot.
thats obtuse. Unless you want to make the case that 11 carries in one half of one game are indicative rather than the first 32 games of his career.
you could go $800k for 2018+ franchise in 2019+franchise in 2020 for ~$28mm total
of course, Lev Bell and Todd Gurley likely get paid somewhere in there so the franchise price goes up
or, you commit to probably something less -- maybe $22mm guaranteed and have him for 5 years / $60mm total.
Yuck. Nope. He's already 26. I don't want him for 5 years; I'm not sure I want him for 3 years. Why can't he be the next Tyrann Mathieu?
The Franchise number right now is just over $12M. I'll buy David Johnson's 27 year old season for that. Devonta Freeman just signed a second contract and the total guaranteed money was $18.3M. That was after three healthy seasons, two Pro Bowls, and a run to the Super Bowl.
Only 9 running backs average more than $6M per year on their deal, and you want to double that? The highest per-year average for RBs with more than one year on their deal is Freeman, and that's $8.25M. Do you really think that David Johnson deserves 30% more?
The TM comp lacks merit: he isnt coming off two acl reconstructions. A wrist injury to a RB isnt close to two knee injuries for a cb/s.
As for the $ comps, then signing a five year deal is even better than going the franchise route-- fine, make it five years/$48m. And yes, i think DJ is a better player who would command more than Freeman.
As for age, its more about touches. DJ is a low mileage 26, and is all of three months older than.... Freeman.
Do you really think DJ has only two productive years left?
I don’t know, but I don’t think he’ll be 10 times more productive than Alvin Kamara, so I don’t understand why I’d pay him 10 times as much.
Running backs basically grow on trees. More and more guys who do what DJ does will come out every year, because that’s what they’ve been doing since middle school. Makes no sense to pay a premium for a replaceable skill.
yeah... it suxx, because he is a great kid. But conventional wisdom says make him play out his rookie contract, tag him a year or two, then let him walk. No sense in extending him early and taking a cap hit we could use elsewhere right now. So far Fitz is the only "Faith" contract that has actually paid off for the redbirds
People where talking about using Peterson to trade up for a QB but Johnson is far more feasible to replace. I would not want to trade either but you can always get a running back which will suffice
that was me that brought up trading Peterson...simpley because we could get a rookie QB and an all pro RB helps that young QB be successful far more than an all pro corner does. Corners also have more value in a trade,.. not to mention it would free up around $14mil a year on the cap... not to mention, I was suggesting trading him to cleveland... why would they bother trading for DJ when they could just keep their picks and draft Saquon Barkley?
for a trade like that to work it would have to specifically be PP21
The franchise tag for two years will probably be the best business decision the Cardinals can make on David Johnson. Giving a 5 year deal with a bunch of guaranteed money to a 27 year old RB is not a smart business option.
Look at it this way...
Right now, David Johnson has a 3 year deal totaling 27.2 mil. It breaks down to 800k for 2018, 12 mil (ish) for a team option in 2019, and 14.4 (ish) mil for a team option in 2020. Those team options are for the franchise tag. That would pay him until he is 29 years old. He will turn 30 at the end of the 2021 season. If you wanted to cut him prior to the league year, you would suffer zero dead money against your cap.
If you gave him a 5 year deal today, it would likely average $10 per year which would fit his rank in terms of NFL RBs. Even in a team friendly deal, you are creating dead money unless you want to pay him a top RB salary at the ages of 30 and 31. You are also losing your ability to improve the roster in 2018 because you are inflating his salary from 800k to approx 7 mil, roughly 6.2 mil. You would gain 3.5 mil in cap space in 2019, and then 4.4 in cap space in 2020, but again we still have him on the books for 11.5 in 2021, and 13 in 2022 when he turns 31 at the end of the season.
It just doesn't really make sense from a team aspect unless David Johnson agrees to an under-market value deal. The problem is that if he did, Johnson would want more guaranteed money to do so, and that would lead to dead space for the Cardinals later.
some baseline assumptions that inform my POV:
1. I think NFL years/carries is the better metric in determining when a RBs production starts to go south. I think the NIU redshirt freshman year + this years lost season extends his productivity into his 8th season, or age 31 (he turns 32 in December of the last year of an extended contract). This is the key one -- I beleive he has at least 4 and likely 5 productive seasons ahead of him.
2. 2018 likely doesnt matter as its a rebuilding year. There are more holes than money, and, pending FAs dont line up with the holes. 2018 is the year when a bunch of young players are brought in and you find the 3-5 that can play.
Cap space in 2019, and 2020/2021 really is where i want cap space. Its also a year where i would prefer not having perhaps the teams best offensive player not showing up until the tuesday before the season opener.
3. I think with Bell and Gurley getting new deals, the RB franchise number likely goes up from where you have it. Its $12 from this last year.
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