Winning the Drafting Game

March 26, 2008 by Harry Greene

Well, for all you would be draft gurus, here’s a few thoughts on the upcoming event that should hold true for at least a few more years.

Drafting by Position
Simply put, it’s easier to target some positions than others. The supposed skill positions are the toughest historically to judge. Some of these considerations are well known, for example you can likely get a good running back deep into the draft. Other considerations are a little murkier.

Wide receivers are notoriously hard to draft, though teams are getting better at it. Even the Detroit Lions eventually identified one.

Go back and look at the nineties if you don’t believe me. High selection after high selection failed to live up to their billing. It is also often the case that a wide receiver may take as many as 3 years to develop.

Like many positions, receivers in college can often get by on good athleticism. They just don’t go up against quality corners every week. They run sloppy routes and still look good. These same routes in the NFL lead to interceptions, driving Offensive Coordinators and quarterbacks to drink.

These same receivers often break-off routes, leaving the ball to float down to some safety. Also, they fail to make hot reads on blitzes, forcing their quarterback to eat the ball and/or be abused. Sloppy receivers are quarterback killers and if you talk to a few coaches, many believe the problem is getting worse.

Quarterbacks are interesting because they tend to be all or nothing if taken early. Many highly drafted quarterbacks are successful. I caught quite a bit of flak for saying Eli Manning was a sure thing, but look who won the Super Bowl now. On the other hand, guys like Ryan Leaf become poster boys for the danger of this type of selection.

Still, top 10 quarterbacks are a reward typically worth the risk. The problem is elevating second level quarterbacks when no outstanding ones are available. This year may be a good example of that phenomena. Matt Ryan is likely the best QB in the top of the draft, but the other possibilities are far riskier. Smart teams will see the buyer beware signs this season.

It’s not impossible to get a good running back in round one. There are many examples. Still, they almost always fail to be the best running backs to come out of a draft.

For my money, you look at middle of the draft rounds and build around a good line. The only exception is when a back drops a round and becomes an irresistible bargain.

Until recently, choosing a tight end early was considered a trap. Far more had failed then succeeded. New offensive schemes have made the position more attractive to quality athletes and teams have started looking more for speed.

The result has been some excellent first round selections, but it should also be noted that bad luck has dogged this group. Injuries have taken a toll on these players and many have not become the superstars they might have been. Durability has made many teams wonder if this type of pick is really a good long-term investment.

The offensive line offers many options. Impacts centers are so rare that few go in round one and of those taken few really have a major impact. This is not true of tackles.

Many of the best ones in the league were early first rounders, though there are quite a few notable failures or mediocre results. Still the cream of the crop, offering speed and agility, are mostly chosen early. That said, a number of competent tacticians at this position have been found in rounds 2 and 3.

No so long in the past, top guards were passed by for second tier tackles under the theory that the best athletes played tackles. These college tackles simply became NFL guards. In recent years this has changed.

More and more the top guards are garnering well deserved attention. Their value still hasn’t risen to the top half of the first round, but mark my word; they’re coming. This is not to say that good guards can’t be obtained in later rounds. Round 2 has long been a place where premier guards are chosen.

Quality lineman are to be found throughout day one and the early third of day two. However, the further down they slip, the less chance you are taking a Pro Bowl caliber player except at center.

Turning to the defensive side of the ball, like receivers, cornerbacks are notoriously risky picks. Again athleticism hides poor technique. The precision of timing routes in the NFL has exposed many of these underachievers.

They also aren’t ready for the continual parade of speed and quickness they face. They will move up in press coverage only to be outmaneuvered and left in the dust. After a little while they back so far off the receiver that the quarterback simply flips the ball to that receiver with play after play netting 7 yards.

Also many of these corners have exceptional burst that allowed them to use their catch-up speed even when beaten. In the NFL, many receivers has a similar burst and these out-of-position corners simply never catch-up.

Another common issue is fluidity. These corners used their speed to mask their stiff hips. They aren’t fluid enough when coming out of a cut to keep up with the receiver. The timing of most NFL quarterbacks is usually good enough that all these corners have is the best view of the reception.

For every top corner taken early in round one, there are usually two mediocre players taken at about the same spot. On the other hand, going past day one is risky. Except for a few returnees from injury, few second day corners have enough speed and size to be a factor in the NFL.

Safeties are one of the most secure positions to select early in the draft. The top ones usually have a speed/power combination that makes them stand out. Good technique in open field tackling is relatively easy to teach. Ball skills are less needed with more and more safeties being brought up to the line to start a play.

There used to be more of a distinction between the free and strong safety. On many teams the positions are interchangeable. There used to be a stigma about this position that a safety selected early was a waste and could not be enough of an impact player to justify such a lofty priority. The last few drafts have probably buried this myth forever.

Outside linebackers are one of the most rewarding positions to draft early. Sure there are misses, but there are far more hits. Many college defensive ends are judged too light to hold up against the run at defensive end, but they make great candidates for OLBs.

The trickiest part of taking an end is assessing his ability to support in pass protection. This is why game speed and agility are often valued over strength. These traits are also essential for rushing the passer, especially out of a 3-4 defense. Look for player with a high number of tackles for a loss when assessing this group.

Inside linebackers are tougher. Since many come out in passing situations, they are not commonly chosen in the first half of round one. One of the big things to look for is the ability to get off a block. Agility, speed and strength are major assets at this slot.

I prefer inside players to be taken in round 2 or even far lower. The top outside linebackers usually go in the top two-thirds of round one, but top defensive ends projecting to OLB may go slightly lower and still be impact players.

The defensive line is another position that is relatively safe to attack in round 1. The best defensive ends projecting to that same position in the NFL, usually go in the top half of the round with the underweight players drifting somewhat lower.

Speed is the key quality, especially a quick first step. Technique can be taught, but a lack of speed is very hard to overcome. The best players seem to have a little burst to the ball carrier or QB when they get close. Most of the misses are with players who can make the QB adjust, but can’t close the deal.

In the middle at tackle you are looking for players who can anchor the line or even better move forward and collapse the pocket. Size and strength are the prime assets desired here. Of course a good motor and decent agility are of great value in all defensive linemen.

Special teams player are normally taken in the second half of round three or later.

Drafting by School
While some will chuckle at this, many NFL personnel evaluators see the school as major consideration. This can come from either a continuity of coaching at that school, a college running more NFL oriented schemes or schools that have a reputation for producing NFL players at a position are more attractive to the top recruits who play that spot.

Linebackers from FSU are always to be seriously considered. Linemen from Boston College or Michigan seem to get an inordinate amount of attention. Virginia produces NFL-type tight ends. Quarterbacks and running backs go to USC, Florida or Miami (though they are in decline).

Almost every position is connected to a small group of schools. If you go to Pro day at a school, you will see a larger number of scouts focusing on those positions at that school.

Drafting by Legacy
NFL scouts like next generation players. It’s not just the Mannings that stand out. Also it’s an advantage to have a father in the game somehow. Sam Baker is likely overrated this year, because he has gotten so much attention as the son of an Arena league icon.

This is not to say that players like Fitzgerald and former Cards’ receiver David Boston didn’t deserve their point of selection, rather it assures these players won’t be missed. It also often means they will give extra effort to succeed and not embarrass their point of influence. Boston was an exception to the latter. Most of these players know what it takes to succeed and a higher than normal percentage achieve that performance level.

The safest draft would likely be either an outside linebacker or a lineman in round 1. In round two running backs, possession receivers and tight ends are added to the mix. In round 3 you likely draft for depth at a need position and thereafter take the best player available regardless of position.

For these latter draftees accent players who can contribute of special teams or play immediately for brief periods in a rotation or in an emergency.

If you have a pick in the top 7, you should take the biggest potential impact player regardless of position or need unless you trade down. Drafting is all about studying history. The quote is attributed to many, but it’s one of my favorites, “Those who don’t study history are bound to repeat it.”

This Year’s Draft
If free agency doesn’t bring any more improvement, the Cards will enter the draft needing help at linebacker, defensive end, offensive line, cornerback, speed receiver and running back.

History would say that the best tactic would be to take a defensive end or linebacker with the first choice. Cornerback is a bigger need, but also a bigger gamble. Even if you overpay, getting one from free agency would seem the superior strategy.

Assuming you get the needed pass rusher in round 1 (DE or OLB), then you would take a running back, another pass rusher (the complimentary OLB or DE), or a top guard prospect in round 2. In round 3 look for a running back or speed receiver.

A blocking tight end who can catch a little would be okay, but I’d only go that route if he could play next year. A good offensive line prospect could be taken here or with any of the following choices.

For round 4 and there after, take the best available athlete as long as they can contribute on special teams or to offensive line depth. You could also look for bargain players who have slipped due to previous injury or off-the-field issues. Somewhere day two help must be found beyond round 3.

Last year the acquisition of Ben Patrick and Steve Breaston made the draft. This is a critical area that often separates the contenders from the also-rans.

Sadly, the Cards are almost forced to select a corner in round 1. Wish them good luck. If they don’t get lucky look for quite a few games to be lost as the corners once again get picked apart by the league’s better quarterbacks.

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