PAC-10 Conference Tournament. Round 1

March 11, 2008 by Ryan Walker

It’s March, let the Madness begin.

Now is the time where some teams play their way into the NCAA tournament, while many more play their way out.

For the PAC-10, the tournament looks to be as competitive as ever, with the conference looking to get as many as 7 teams into the field. Seventy percent of the conference in the dance, percentage wise would be an all-time record.

However, that is not the only history the PAC-10 is looking to make. The tournament committee has never selected a 9-9 PAC-10 team to go to the big dance. This year, if certain teams perform well, there could be as many as 3.

So without further ado, here is a break down of what could be the most exciting PAC-10 Tournament in recent memory.

#7- Arizona

#10- Oregon St.

The first game of the tournament should be the most lopsided. The Wildcats will once again be playing for their tournament lives, luckily they have drawn the Beavers who in the PAC-10, look as out of place as Ryan Leaf on an NFL field.

The only way Oregon St. pulls off an upset is if they get hot from 3 point range, and out-rebound Arizona. The game will be over by halftime.

Final score: 85-55, Arizona rolls.

#8- Washington

#9- California

A veteran Washington team, led by junior Jon Brockman and senior Ryan Appleby, gave Huskie fans high hopes entering the season. But a tough non-conference schedule highlighted by road losses to Texas A&M, Syracuse, Oklahoma St, and at home to Pittsburgh derailed their season.

Washington can PLAY, proving themselves with wins this season over UCLA, Arizona St, and Oregon.

California is equally as dangerous, and proved it can hang with anyone in the Pac-10 with wins against Washington St., USC, and a controversial 1 point loss at UCLA.

In their first meeting at Washington, which Cal’s 2^nd best player and NBA prospect DeVon Hardin missed due to the flu, the Huskies had no answer for sophomore sensation Ryan Anderson. Anderson finished with 33 points and 17 rebounds, leading the Bears to a 79-75 victory.

On March 1, 2008, in Berkeley, the Huskies avenged that loss with a 87-84 victory. The difference? Joe Wolfinger, yes THE JOE WOLFINGER. Averaging just over 4 PPG, Wolfinger came off bench and didn’t miss a shot, including 4-4 from 3 point range, scoring 17 Points in 18 minutes.

Translation: While I don’t believe the Huskies have a legit answer for Ryan Anderson, I also don’t think 7-0, 250lb Joe Wolfinger, who has more personal fouls this season than field goals OR rebounds, can have two perfect games in a DECADE, let alone a month. Also a healthy DeVon Hardin will hold All-Pac-10 performer Jon Brockman in check, leaving only Ryan Appleby and Quincy Pondexter to carry the offensive load. Therefore I am going with the lower seed in this one, CAL taking down Washington 75-64.

#3- Washington St.

#6- Oregon

Washington St. spent the first three months of the regular season ranked in the top ten, and have been ranks in the polls the entire season.

However, after starting out with 14 straight wins, including a blowout at USC, the Cougars have stumbled a bit down the stretch finishing just 9-7, highlighted by loses to CAL and Arizona twice.

The good news for WAZZU, they beat Oregon both times they played this year. First a 69-60 victory, led by Washington St. stud seniors Derrick Low (27 points on 10-16 shooting) and Kyle Weaver (16 points on 8 shots), snapped a 13 game losing streak to Oregon. Then on February 16^th, Oregon had a chance to even up the season series in Eugene. Washington St. held Oregon to 4 of 17 shooting behind the arc and used a late run to hold off the Ducks again 62-53. The Cougars were led by junior guard Taylor Rochester who, after being held without a field goal in the first meeting, scored 21 points to lead all scorers.

For the PAC-10 tournament, this game has major implications. A loss for either team could have severe consequences.

Oregon’s NCAA hopes, for all intents and purposes, lie in this game. A loss and it’s an NIT bid for the ducks.

A loss for Washington St., will not come without consequences either. Joe Lunardi, ESPN’s “Bracketologist,” has WAZZU as a 7^th seed going into the conference tournaments. A loss in the PAC-10 quarterfinals has the potential to put Washington St as a dreaded 8/9 seed with a 2^nd round meeting with a #1, while a win could push them up to a 5 or 6 seed and much more favorable match-ups.

The bottom line, I don’t see Oregon figuring out Washington St.’s defense, especially when it’s a game WAZZU needs as well. While beating anyone three times in one year is difficult, the veteran Cougar team gets it done, WAZZU wins 66-58.

#4- USC

#5- ASU

In my opinion this is the game to watch of the first round. Led by the freshman phenom O.J. Mayo, USC has the talent and coaching to not only win the PAC-10 tournament but also make a deep run in the Big Dance.

Winners of 5 out of the last 6 USC, is peaking at the perfect time of the season. With wins over UCLA, Stanford, and a sweep of Oregon, USC has the bite to go along with the bark.

ASU meanwhile is enjoying its best season in the Herb Sendek era. At 19-11 (9-9), ASU needs a win against the favored Trojans to feel safe for an at-large bid to the tournament. ASU, led by their own freshman sensation James Harden, and junior Jeff Pendergraph, has some big wins of their own over Xavier, Stanford, and a sweep of Arizona.

ASU and USC split the regular season, each winning by 14 on their own home floor. Both games were very similar in the first half, with neither team leading by more than four. In L.A., USC used a 15-2 run late in the second half to pull away from the young Devils, and in Tempe, ASU used two separate runs of 10-0 and 16-0 to pull away from the Trojans.

So what is the common theme? Timely runs at key moments from star players. In two games Mayo is averaging 28.5 PPG, which is bad news for the Devils. In the end, a win for the Trojans means a possible move up from Lunardi’s projected #7 seed, which is welcome news for Trojan fans, meaning they won’t have to face a #1 or #2 seed until at least the Sweet 16.

A win for the Devils and they are in the tournament. With so much at stake, this is where stars are made. O.J. Mayo, Taj Gibson, and Davon Jefferson are stars, and they will make the timely runs in what will amount to a home game for the Trojans.

I do think ASU can and will make it interesting, but in the end, USC prevails 74-67.

Will the PAC-10 make history by getting 7 teams in? That remains to be seen, but the potential is there.

In what promises to be an entertaining first round, I have CAL, Arizona, Washington St, and USC prevailing, add UCLA and Stanford to the mix setting up for a very entertaining PAC-10 finale.

Once the 1^st round is complete, I will break down the rest of the quarterfinals and beyond.

Posted in arizona wildcats, asu sun devils