Can the Cardinals Win Keeping the Status Quo?

February 18, 2008 by Walter Mitchell

This shapes up to be a very intriguing off-season for the Arizona Cardinals. All initial indications are that Rod Graves, the Cardinals’ GM, is focussing the off-season on re-signing the current players. Graves has already stipulated that the Cardinals won’t be big players in free agency. That is, don’t expect the Cardinals to sign one of the top name free agents. For many Cardinal fans, this news is a real bummer, especially in light of the fact that there are some outstanding free agents on the market, such as perennial Pro Bowl LG Alan Faneca (Steelers) and RB Michael Turner (Chargers), who fit the precise mold of what the Cardinals need to be absolutely dynamic on offense and take the pressure off of 3rd year QB Matt Leinart. If Graves wasn’t sending up a smokescreen, which has never been his modus operandi anyway, the acquisition of Fancea and Turner is just a pipe dream. Thus, the real question is: can the Cardinals win next season by signing their own players, adding a couple of lesser coveted free agents and filing in their gaps with draft picks?

Let’s start by examining the prospects of merely keeping the status quo…(A) The reasoning may be that now that Head Coach Ken Whisenhunt and his staff have a year under their belts, and the players know the system and what’s being asked of them, perhaps, with such continuity, the Cardinals can win the type of close games they lost last year. Virtually all of their games went down to the wire last year…which speaks volumes for the kind of coaching Whisenhunt and his staff were able to do in such a short time, especially with a franchise that has been largely uncompetetive on a week to week basis for many, many years.

In analyzing why the Cardinals lost as many close games as they did,  it would appear that if the Cardinals could find a way to avoid costly defensive and special teams meltdowns, they would win more of the close games than they lose. The offense was scoring regularly in the mid to upper twenties, especially down the stretch. But, the defense was porous far too many times late in games with the game on the line. And it certainly didn’t help that Neil Rackers missed on more game deciding field goals than he made. While the special teams did show improvement as the season unfolded, they still gave up too many momentum changing punt and kickoff returns.

So…improving the defense and special teams would appear to be the key to this off-season. The questions are: (1) even if the team re-signs Karlos Dansby and Calvin Pace, does the defense have enough talent and clutch performers to win games down the stretch? (2) do the Cardinals have the special teams personnel to become consistently efficient? (3) should Neil Rackers be replaced as the kicker? (4) does defensive coordinator Clancy Pendergast have the right schemes in place to allow the defense to suceed late in games?

Here are my answers: (1) the first thing I need to know is, with the current personnel can the Cardinals effectively pressure the opposing QBs with a four man rush. For the past several years the resounding answer to this has been no. Yes, Pace has ability, and so does a healthy Chike Okeafor…and Bertrand Berry, if healthy and in good shape, can still pressure the edge. But history would suggest that to rely on those three, Pace, Okeafor and Berry, would be a mistake. Then when we look at the pass coverage, many more question marks arise. Pendergast tends to play soft zones, especially with the games on the line, and that has led to easy receptions and backbreaking TDs. The corners, Rod Hood and Eric Green are capable, when healthy and not burned out, as Hood was late this past season. But neither Hood nor Green is a classic “shutdown” corner. Behind Hood and Green, the depth is glaringly thin. At safety, the situation is even worse. Free agent FS Terrence Holt was almost never around the ball. SS Adrian Wilson is solid in coverage underneath, but a liability in space. Wilson plays well in the red zone where there is less turf to cover. Holt will likely be released, and be replaced by converted CB Antrel Rolle. Rolle made some acrobatic plays in the secondary last year as a nickel back, but it remains to be seen whether he can do the same as a Cover 1, 2 or 3 safety. Behind Rolle is Aaron Francisco, who is a tough hitter, but has yet to show that he can get his hands on intermediate to deep passes. Conclusion: No, the current personnel is not enough and while adding a few prized rookies to the mix may help some, the Cardinals need to hit the free agent market this year to add an edge pass rusher, a cover corner and a free safety (for insurance, in case Rolle falters in his new role).

(2) The Cardinals’ special team talent is weak. Sean Morey was a nice addition, but he didn’t make as many tackles as one would have hoped. Veterans such as Joe Tafoya, Marcel Shipp and Matt Ware were decent, but not particularly strong. Plus, the team needs to add a punter. Conclusion: the Cardinals need to add special teams depth through free agency and the draft.

(3) I have been back and forth on Rackers, who appeared to be much more comfortable and accurate with Mitch Berger holding…but, by then, the game-end situations weren’t as pressure packed, because the Cardinals were out of realistic playoff contention. When the games mattered most the past two seasons, Rackers did not deliver. Yet, he was virtually flawless three years ago. Conclusion: stick with Rackers and make sure he’s comfortable with his holder.

(4) Ken Whisenhunt, if he hasn’t done so already, absolutely needs sit down with Clancy Pendergast and insist that he change his approach to game-end situations…that, first and foremost, he must abandon the three man rush for good…have his corners press the WRs off and on to keep them off-balanced and guessing, and scheme so as to apply the most possible pressure on the QB, which would mean that the cover men will need to play sticky coverage and expect the ball to come out fast and hot. In essense, Whisenhunt needs to insist that all aspects of the football strategies will be aggressive. No more of this passive, keep everything in front of you defense.

If Rod Graves were to change his mind about this off-season and what he can do to strengthen this football team, what options does he have? First he can decide to scrutinize the value of current players at their salaries…

QB: Staus Quo: Leinart and Warner. In question: Rattay and Hasselbeck. While it would be nice to add a QB in this draft, there are too many other needs, quite frankly.  Hunch? Look for the Cards to sign UFA Brian St. Pierre (Steelers) as the #3.

RB: Status Quo: Arrington. In question: James and Shipp. Still too early to give up on J.J., and his salary is not an issue. James had a solid year and Shipp is a model citizen, but the Cards could save close to $6M by releasing them both, which they could either allot toward acquiring UFA Michael Turner (Chargers) and still save money–or sign a less expensive free agent such as Mewelde Moore (Vikings) and draft an impact RB such as Rashard Mendenhall, Jonathan Stewart, Felix Jones, Jamaal Charles or Matt Forte.

FB: Status Quo: No one. In question: Smith and Castille. Terrelle Smith was decent, but not great. Castille is well liked by the coaches. Time to make a switch and save salary?

LT: Status Quo: No one. In question: Mike Gandy. Gandy gave the Cards a solid season at left tackle. The question is, if the Cards can acquire LG Alan Faneca, should they then switch Reggie Wells over to tackle, his more natural position? Also, Gandy’s potential price tag for this upcoming season is a sticking point.

LG: Status Quo: No one. In question: Reggie Wells. Wells showed improvement at LG and may stay there if the team has no other option. But, the interior line would be tremendously upgraded if the Cards added Faneca.

C: Status Quo: Johnson, Sendlein.

RG: Status Quo: Lutui, E. Brown. In question: Keydrick Vincent. Elton Brown showed good versatility as a backup guard and tackle, as did Vincent. It would be nice and reasonably inexpensive to have them both back.

RT: Status Quo: L. Brown. In question: Oliver Ross. If Ross doesn’t accept a significant paycut, he’s gone.

TE: Status Quo: Pope, Patrick. In question: Bienenmann. While Bienemann has ability, he made a fair share of mistakes and wasn’t all that productive on special teams. Signing a bargain free agent like Sean Ryan (Jets) may be wise, seeing as Ryan is a much better blocker and special teams player.

WR: Status Quo: Boldin, Fitzgerald, Breaston, Morey. In question: Urban, Merritt. Both Urban and Merritt are RFAs. Both have shown ability, but can either of them be an effective tackler and contributor on special teams?

SOLB: Status Quo: Okeafor. In question: Pace. Chike is still worth his salary and should return to tip-top strength and shape. If the team can re-sign Pace, Okeafor can switch to WOLB. The question is: what will it take to re-sign Pace?

SDE: Status Quo: Dockett. In question: Bailey. Bailey’s good in short yardage and goal-line situations, but not a real option to start if Dockett is injured.

NT: Status Quo: Watson, Branch.

WDE: Status Quo: Smith, Cooper. Look for both these players to have good years in 2008.

SILB: Status Quo: Hayes, Beisel.

WILB: Status Quo: Dansby. The Cards need depth behind Dansby here.

WOLB: Status Quo: No one. In question: Berry, Tafoya, Blackstock. Berry’s injuries make his salary a risk. It would be feasible to keep him if he would accept a paycut with good incentives. Tafoya plays hard and does contribute on special teams, but is not a pass rusher. Blackstock showed a little improvement last year, but what tender is he worth as an RFA?

LCB: Status Quo: Hood. In question: Bain. It would be great if Bain comes to camp ready to turn heads and make this team.

SS: Status Quo: Wilson. In question: Celestin. Celestin is one of the more decent special teamers, but he struggled badly as a starter in place of Wilson.

FS: Status Quo: Rolle, Francisco. If the Cards sign or draft another free safety, which would be wise, Francisco can switch to SS behind Wilson, and might even thrive in Rolle’s old nickel role.

RCB: Status Quo: Green. In question: Brown, Adams. Ralph Brown did make a decent impact on special teams, not great, but decent. Michael Adams showed some potential as a quick, feisty gunner, although his lack of size is an issue.

LS: Status Quo: Hodel. Needs to be re-signed and compensated fairly for being so solid.

P: Staus Quo: No one. In question: Berger. Mitch Berger was very inconsistent as he tried to return from a year’s absence. He has a good leg, but have age and injuries caught up with him?

K: Status Quo: No one. In question: Rackers.

Recap of those players in question (whether they have contracts or not): QBs Rattay, Hasselbeck; RB: James, Shipp; FB: Smith, Castille; LT: Gandy; LG: Wells; OL: Vincent; RT: Ross; LBs: Berry, Pace, Tafoya, Blackstock; DL: Bailey; DBs: Bain, Brown, Adams, Celestin.

Players with the most cap impact: James, Shipp, T. Smith, Gandy, Ross, Berry, and Pace.

If the Cardinals were to release all of the cap impact players above and re-structure Fitz’s contract to make it cap friendly…the Cardinals may be able to sign (using signing bonuses to keep things cap friendly): LG Alan Faneca (Steelers), RB Michael Turner (Chargers), QB Brian St. Pierre (Steelers), TE Sean Ryan (Jets), DE/OLB Travis LaBoy (Titans) and CB William James (Eagles)…and draft: (1) CB Aqib Talib or Antoine Cason; (2) DE/OLB Quentin Groves; (3) WR Harry Douglass; (4) T Tony Hills, Texas; (5) FS Quinton Demps, UTEP; (6) LB JoLonn Dunbar, Boston College; (7) P Geoff Price, Notre Dame.

If the Cardinals don’t sign any significant free agents…and are not able to re-sign Calvin Pace…the draft would seemingly have to go: (1) OLB/DE–Derrick Harvey, Quentin Groves, or Calais Campbell; (2) CB–Dwight Lowery, Simeon Castille, Justin King, or DeJuan Tribble; (3) OLB Shawn Crable, Ezra Butler, Bruce Davis, Tommy Blake, Bo Ruud, Ali Highsmith; (4) T Tony Hills, John Greco, Kirk Barton; (5) RB Tashard Choice, James Davis, Chauncey Washington; (6) FS Quintin Demps, Marty Tadman, Marcus Watts, Josh Barrett; (7) P Geoff Price, Andrew Larson, Jimmie Kaylor.

What do you think is the best course of action?

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