The Rebuilding Myth

November 10, 2007 by Harry Greene

I have long believed that most fans get misconceptions from listening to commentators on football both in games and studio shows. Most of these “reporters” fall into two groups; ex-players and coaches who too often know little of the history of the game or professional voices who sound (and on TV, look) good but lack substance.

This is not to say there aren’t valuable insights that come from listening to a player talk about his personal experiences in the game. Coaches can give you a good understanding of strategy. Some voices actually do their homework, but they are the exception. The problem is that very few of the above people invest the time to become students of the game.

Let’s not ignore those crack staffs that backup these frontline performers. The problem with those people is that they are focused on an intellectual game of trying to find some obscure factoid (they invented that word) that no other show has provided. This focus on minutia has left the big picture typically unmentioned or misunderstood. In the coming weeks I will try to blow up a few of these myths and give you the real story.

This week’s myth is the rebuilding process: a mode in which the Cards have apparently spent the vast majority of the last 60 years. You may have noticed that a number of responders to my recent posts and articles have mentioned how the Cards are making progress (they are), so I should cut them some more slack. This response is not new. I heard it when they hired Buddy Ryan. I heard it when Neil Lomax was hot. I heard it the season the Arizona Cards actually won a playoff game. I’ve heard it quite a bit this year.

So, how do you define making progress? How long should it take to produce a winning season or a few consecutive winning seasons? Let’s look at history. In 1988 the league went to a 16 game schedule. The Cards’ best record since then is 9-7. Every other team in the league, except expansion child Houston, has managed at least one season of 12-4.

Yes, I did write every single team but the Cards. Which NFL team has the longest current run of season without being in the playoffs? You guessed it; the Cardinals. It seems like everyone else defines progress a little more aggressively than Cardinal fans.

How long does it take to turn around a team? In this case that’s like asking, “How many Cardinal executives does it take to screw in a light bulb?” Again looking at history it shouldn’t take very long. Consider these events. Denver followed 13years of losing with 85% winning seasons. Indy failed to win for 9 straight seasons then went from 3-13 to 9-6 in one year. KC lost in13 of 15 campaigns then had only 2 losing seasons in the next 15 years. The now great Pats had 6 losing to start their NFL involvement culminating in a 3-11 then went 11-3 next year and went on to have only 1 losing season in the next 13. They then suffered 5 consecutive losing seasons ending with a 6-10 record, but flipped it to 11-5 in just one year.

The Jets experienced 11 losing years ending in 4-12 then went 10-5-1 . They later lost for 10 consecutive season finally finishing 1-15 but rebounded under Parcels to 9-7 then 12-4. Two teams were close to the Cards’ history of futility. Pitt had 23 campaigns with only 5 winning records, ending 6-8, but they bounced out of it with a 11-3 finish. New Orleans went 20 years without tasting a victorious year but even they turn 7-9 into 12-3.

It’s true not one approaches the Cards’ history of incompetence, but history tells us every other continually losing team that has been around 10 or more years has been able to turn around a losing history with a big year. It’s almost unimaginable that the Cards’ last double digit win season was over 30 years ago.

The advent of free agency; scheduling by strength of record and the salary cap have produced an astounding amount of parity in the NFL. Teams can frequently go from being in the top 8 in loses to the top 8 in wins in one or two seasons.

Ken Whisenhunt is fond of telling us that this isn’t the same old Cardinals’ team. I think he believes that is the case. For the rest of us, we need to see if it’s just wishful thinking. I like Whisenhunt and I want him to succeed. He’s already done quite a bit of good. Nonetheless, there are issues with this team that have to be resolved if it is to truly be rebuilt. For example, Whisenhunt’s been looking for a power running game that will allow the team to control a game. Sunday he saw it. Unfortunately, it belonged to Tampa Bay, whose third string running back ploughed under the Cards.

In general, rebuilding more often than not happens in a single season or sometimes two. Teams often go from total losers to overnight successes. The idea that typically bad teams become good teams by improving a few games each year is a myth; most change is quick. Occasionally a coaching change spurs this, but more often it’s the result of a great off-season. Leadership amongst the players or a basic change in attitude often comes through free agency. The draft can bring an immediate impact player who can make all the difference.

So if you want to cut the Cards some slack, go ahead. After 50+ years, I’m a little tired of that process. You can say the situation is unique and it can’t be done in a year, but history disagrees. In this day and age it’s quite a bit easier to catch lightning in a bottle and it’s time the Cards stopped promising and started producing.

Oh yeah, about the question, “How many Cardinal executives does it take to screw in a light bulb?” We may never know because the Cards have yet to see the light.

Posted in nfl, football, arizona cardinals