Pundits Predict, I Flip a Coin…
October 9, 2007 by Chris Hall
Who is going to win the NLCS? The Diamondbacks, with the National League’s best record of 90-72, or the Colorado Rockies, who took one extra game to reach the 90-win plateau?
On Defense, the Rockies get the edge, with a higher fielding percentage (.989), than the D-Backs’ (.983). The Rockies were the best defensive team in the majors while the D-Backs were #17.
In Pitching, the D-Backs hold the edge. Anchored by Brandon Webb, the D-Backs were #7 in team ERA (4.13), while the Rockies were #14 (4.32).
The Rockies clearly hold the advantage in hitting, where their team batting average 
of .280 is well above the .250 average posted by the D-Backs.
Plus, there is that whole run-differential thing the pundits are still touting. Looking at the stats, the Rockies are clearly favored to win this series. They are the hottest team in baseball and can clearly out-hit and out-field the D-Backs.
So why am I not scared by this team? Let’s look at the intagibles.
The Rockies have won 17-of-18 in their last 18 games. The only team to beat them? The Arizona Diamondbacks!
The Rockies have beaten up on Brandon Webb all season long…until his last start of the season, where he clinched the division championship in Colorado.
The Rockies have the better record in the head-to-head series, winning 10-of-18. After game 16, the series was tied at eight-all. Before the 17th game was played, the D-Backs learned they were guaranteed to have the best record in the NL. The Rockies, out of desperation, took the next two from two starters (Gonzales and Petit) that they won’t see again in the post season.
The Rockies should field the NL MVP and the NL Rookie of the Year. The D-Backs field the defending Cy Young Winner and the probable NL Manager of the Year.
Look at the post-season stat comparisons between the two teams. They are eerily similar. This series will come down to unpredictable issues, such as:
“Which starter has an off night?”
“When will momentum take hold of the series?”
“Can the bullpens hold up?”
“Can a team produce clutch hits?”
There are no stat lines for these issues, yet they will determine the series winner. The national pundits, who largely ignored Colorado and Arizona all year, will only look at the stats. They are too busy swooning over the new Evil Empire Red Sox and the crushing defeats of the Yankees, Cubs, and Phillies to actually analyze the games. That is why the pundits will again be wrong when they look at the stats and blindly declare the Rockies the National League Champions.
I say this series is too close to call and flip my coin. Heads for D-Backs, tails for Rockies. First side to land up four times wins.
The coin says the real team of destiny resides in Arizona. D-Backs win (4-3).
Posted in playoffs, brandon webb, mlb, baseball, arizona diamondbacks
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I’m very nervous about the Rockies, but we’ve had that X-factor all year and I think we’ll see it again.
The new x-factor for the D-backs is can Livan have the same performance in game 3 against the Cubs? Can the young players keep coming up clutch early in the game?
Bottom line is, if we are leading after 5, I like our chances. Our bullpen has just been solid to say the least. Pundits can speculate all they want but what works on paper isn’t what works on the field. Nobody gave the D-backs a snowballs chance against the Cubs and we just blew them away.
It’ll be a long series with lots of ups and downs. We need to win the first two at home. Thankfully, this time there will be way more D-backs fans in the stands since Colorado doesn’t have a huge following yet.
I think your second point is the most telling. All the experts/pundits say ‘pitching wins championships’.
I hope they’re right.