Padres vs. D’Backs Series Preview

August 27, 2007 by Chris Hall

If ever there was a late-August match-up that could shape a pennant race, this is it.  The D’Backs visit San Diego for a four-game tilt this week.  The swing in this single series is obvious.  If the Padres sweep, they leapfrog the D’backs in the NL West.  If the D’Backs sweep, they will have built a seemingly insurmountable lead going into the home-stretch.  In all likelihood, the outcome of the series will fall in the middle.  The pitching matchups give some clue as to where our victories may come…

 Game 1: Livan Hernandes (9-8, 4.96) vs. Jake Peavy (14-5, 2.21)

If Livo can go deep into this match-up, it will go a long ways to determining the outcome for the rest of the series.  You never want opposing batters to get a lot of looks at the bullpen, especially on the first day of a long series. 

Peavy has been dominant this year, particularly with the D’Backs.  In his last 14 innings of work against Arizona, Peavy hasn’t allowed a single run.  He is 2-0 with a 1.86 ERA against the snakes in 3 starts this year.   He is well-rested after a 6 inning performance in New York last week.  The Babybacks better bring their bats.

Prediction:  The Padres take this one (1-5).

Brandon Webb (14-8, 2.63) vs. Justin Germano (6-7, 4.24) 

After taking a shot from the Padres’ ace, the Diamondbacks respond with their own.  As he had done all season, Webby will find a way to carry this team on his back.  Imagine Webby pitching in a pitcher-friendly park.   I like our odds in this one.

Germano is an average pitcher who has moments of brilliance.  Getting to him early is the key in this game.  The D’backs must take this opportunity to dig deep into the Padres bullpen.  He had a rough-ish outing his last game, earning a no-decision after getting into serious trouble in the 6th.  He will be looking to bounce back, but one mistake is all it takes for Webby to earn another one-run victory.

Prediction: D’Backs win (2-1)

Micah Owings (6-7, 4.69) vs. Greg Maddux (10-9, 3.90)

Let’s hope Micah isn’t too tired after his stint as a pinch-hitter.  The kid has been coming into his own as of late and his performance against a potent Cubs line-up was very impressive.  His confidence grows with every start and with a weak-hitting team, such as the Padres, he should continue to find success.

Maddux has 343 career victories.  Only one of them came at the expense of the Diamondbacks…ever.  Maddux does not match up well against this team, for whatever reason.   Since the D’Backs will have 9 legitimate bats in the line-up this night, I will give them the edge.

Prediction: D’Backs win (4-3) 

Doug Davis (11-11, 4.09) vs. TBA

Davis can be a good pitcher, but his record has been disappointing for a #2 starter.  He needs to step up his game down the stretch.  His work since the All-Star Break has been solid and he needs to continue to punish opposing hitters.  The D’Backs have won 8 of his 9 starts since the Break. 

TBA: I am afraid this might be Chris Young, returning from his back injury.  If the Cy Young candidate returns, we better hope the D’Backs have already taken two of the first three games.  If Young does return, I expect him to give 5-6 quality innings before succumbing to fatigue or tweaking his back again.   It still might not be enough if Davis is on his game. 

If Clay Hensley (2-3, 6.43) pitches for the Padres, I like our chances even more.

Prediction: D’Backs win, but the score depends on the Padres starter

Pitching will set the tone for this series.  If the arms are on, I fully expect the bats to follow suit.  I like the D’backs chances to win this series, because their bats are much more of a threat than those of the Padres.  With Young questionable to start, we may be catching the Padres at the exact right time to put a stake in their quest to repeat as NL West Champs.

Posted in arizona diamondbacks, baseball